Open - $3.65 3/4, High - $3.70, Low - $3.64 3/4, Close - $3.65 1/2 Up $.04
I exited long futures last week on Wednesday I believe and I am look for a place to re-own futures against my long $3.60 April puts to turn them into calls. I am not a big fan of flat out ownership of corn at this point until I see better indications of a bottom from the chart. We are still using the downtrend line from the January high as resistance. We need to close above that level ($3.68) for a few days for me to get excited about an upside move.
Bottom line - I am looking for May '09 corn to open unchanged to lower tonight based on follow through from the close today. I see support at $3.64, $3.62 1/2 and then $3.58, I see resistance at $3.67 then $3.70. I am expecting early follow through weakness tonight and MAYBE tomorrow morning but I am looking for an early low and a late high tomorrow. We need a close above $3.68 to gain more strength for a run at the upside but for now I believe selling will surface just below today's low.
MEAL - May '09 Electronic
Open - $267.70, High - $270.50, Low - $264.80, Close - $265.00 Down $.30
Bottom line - I am looking for an early low and late high tomorrow with support at $264.50 and $263.10 and resistance to be $267.50 and $270.50. I am still in the camp of soybean meal looking for a bottom therefore I have call options in place to give us upside protection in the event of a rally. I want upside protection at these levels but I want known risk thus the use of options.
HOGS - June '09 GLOBEX
Open - $73.15, High - $74.30, Low - $72.95, Close - $73.20 Down $.525
I am looking for continued weakness tomorrow based on how the charts look. The last commentary I had last week said I was looking for hogs to have a downside reversal on Thursday which was on target in the morning but closed higher on the day. I am standing by my comments and continue to believe we should see a setback in the June '09 hogs before going much higher.
Bottom line - I am looking for the June '09 hogs to test $72.37 with an ultimate test of $71.90. If we close below $71.90 for a couple of days then I would expect a test of $71.30 to $69.55 area. I see June '09 trading lower tomorrow in the early stages of the day and possibly finding support later in the session however I think any rally we have tomorrow will be sold by professional traders. I don't like the market here unless we start to see big moves to the upside in the cutout numbers. Support for tomorrow is $72.37 and $71.90 where resistance is at $73.60, $73.77 and then $74.30 although I don't think it is likely we will see the topside of resistance tomorrow. Today looked pretty ugly on the charts (in my opinion).
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