tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5290255326971252442024-03-13T07:26:20.707-05:00Lean Hog PerspectiveThis lean hog commentary contains thoughts from Jeremy Knutson, a commodity broker with Hurley & Associates located in the Midwest. Jeremy has a passion for risk management in lean hog, corn, soybean meal and various other grain markets. Marketing, technical and fundamental ideas are the foundation and focus of this blog. My intent is to provide a premier lean hog blog that will shed light on the complex state of today's risk management in the hog industry.Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.comBlogger131125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-5754751437865726582009-04-22T19:27:00.000-05:002009-04-22T19:27:36.170-05:00PLEASE VISIT WWW.LEANHOG.NET TO GET COMMENTARY. SITE HAS MOVED.<span style="color: red; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-large;">PLEASE NOTE THAT OUR SITE HAS MOVED TO <a href="http://www.leanhog.net/">WWW.LEANHOG.NET</a> AND ALL FUTURE POSTS WILL BE ON THE NEW SITE LOCATION. <a href="http://www.leanhog.net/">CLICK HERE</a> TO BE RE-DIRECTED TO <a href="http://www.leanhog.net/">WWW.LEANHOG.NET</a>.</span></span> <br />
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-10257392351387936542009-04-21T18:44:00.000-05:002009-04-21T18:44:43.531-05:00Hog Comments - 04/21/09 Hogs are flat today as grains rally.<b style="font-family: arial;">CORN - May ‘09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.70, High - $3.79, Low - $3.68 1/2, Close - $3.74 Up $.04 1/2.</b><br />
<b style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term </b><b><span style="font-family: arial;">(6 months) </span></b><b style="font-family: arial;"> - Bullish/Higher</b><br />
<b style="font-family: arial;">Thursday <b>I said: </b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">“</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">My thoughts on corn getting stronger as the day progressed on Friday was obviously wrong and therefore I did not place my order to buy at $3.76 3/4 like I said I was going to. This is why I don't recommend doing as I write because I have the luxury of changing my mind before you read about it. If you have questions about something either email or call me! I had an order in today at $3.47 which is near down limit as a just in case order not expecting it to get there and it didn't. I also had an order during the last hour of trade to buy at $3.65 against my long $3.80 May '09 puts. This is an effort to manage the equity that I have in the $3.80 puts as well as give me a synthetic call option through Friday. </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span> <br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">As I mentioned before I have a cycle taking us lower this week however there is one thing I want to pay attention to and that is the open we had for May '09 corn on Sunday night. We opened at $3.74 3/4 when the weekly low was $3.76, this is a POTENTIALLY friendly opening. We have also backed off $.47 from the high of April 2nd to today's low so I am not that bearish at these levels.”</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>May ‘09 corn:</b> As mentioned I am not bearish at these levels give the decline we've had. Today was actually a pretty quiet day as it relates to volume so I'm not buying into this rally attempt. As of right now I am keeping my options open to purchase corn at a lower level with a preference of $3.67 1/2 if I can. I will be looking for this number tomorrow as I think the market has potential get near it tomorrow.<br />
</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bottom line: </b>I am looking for the market to experience an early high and a late low tomorrow. I will continue to try and buy around $3.67 1/2.</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> <br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>May '09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 04-22-09</b> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R3) Resistance 3: $3.81 1/4</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R2) Resistance 2: $3.79</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R1) Resistance 1: $3.76 3/4</span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Today's close: $3.74</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S1) Support 1: $3.73 3/4</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S2) Support 2: $3.70 1/2</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S3) Support 3: $3.67 1/2 </span> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">_________________________________________________________________________</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<b style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $319.20, High - $325.50, Low - $317.90, Close - $325.30 Up $6.10</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher</span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span><b style="font-family: arial;">Thursday <b>I said</b></b><b style="font-family: arial;"><b>: </b></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">"</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I continue to think the meal market has room for decline but <u>tomorrow</u> looks like an early low and late high type day. The May '09 meal contract is looking to confirm Friday's high of $333.90 as its high for the planting season. It wouldn't be surprising to see May '09 meal trade back near $305.80 which would be 50% of the most recent move. I will not chase the meal market at these levels but I still have a call spread in place to give me protection if the market moves higher on about 60% of my needs. I'm looking for a pull back toward $305.80 in the May '09 contract.</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">”</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>May ‘09 meal: </b></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I said it yesterday and I will say it again today; I am not willing to chase the meal market at these levels. I have confidence in saying this because I have call spreads in place to allow me to be wrong directionally but still keep business under control. May '09 meal still needs to get back above $326.00 on a daily close before I think we can test our old high of $333.90 so that said, I will maintain my negative bias toward the meal market. <br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bottom line: </b>I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the upside early tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">May '09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-22-09 </span></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
(R3) Resistance 3: $329.40</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
(R2) Resistance 2: $327.90</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
(R1) Resistance 1: $325.50</span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Today's close: $325.30</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
(S1) Support 1: $323.70</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
(S2) Support 2: $322.10</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S3) Support 3: $320.90</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">_________________________________________________________________________</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><b style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $72.40, High - $72.75, Low - $72.20, Close - $72.40 Up $.10</span></b><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
Thoughts - Long Term </span></b><b><span style="font-family: arial;">(6 months) </span></b><b><span style="font-family: arial;"> - Friendly</span></b><br />
</span><b style="font-family: arial;">Thursday <b>I said</b></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><b>: </b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">“</span></b></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">After looking at today's June '09 contract close I see that today was the lowest close we've had since April 2nd, 2009. Looking at the cycle still showing lower into ultimately next week and the intra-day chart showing a small retracement of today's larger down move early in the day; I don't have a ton of good to say about the market. I am sure with producers in the fields doing work we could see the cash market stay firmer as we move forward but the charts don't show me anything to get excited about. I will continue to stay short with my call strategy in place to give me upside potential if I am wrong. Based on my cycle indicator I see weakness into May 4th.</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">"</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>June ‘09 hogs: </b>June really didn't do much today as we traded within yesterday's range and failed to show anything of significance to change my mind on the market which is lower. I need to see the </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">June '09 contract close above $72.75 for a couple days before I will say we could test $73.85 again. I am still of the opinion the market has more downside for the time being. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> <br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bottom line: </b>I’m looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low and I'm staying hedged for now. If we close below $72.175 tomorrow and Thursday then I am looking for a test of $70.525.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">June '09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-22-09 </span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R3) Resistance 3: $73.75</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R2) Resistance 2: $73.00</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R1) Resistance 1: $72.75</span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Today's close: $72.40</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S1) Support 1: $72.20</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S2) Support 2: $71.675</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S3) Support 3: $71.22</span><br />
<br />
<pre>NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA Tue, Apr 21, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Monday's Close: Fresh 1/4" trim loins steady
to 1.00 lower; butts unevenly steady; sknd hams 20-23 lbs steady, 23-27 lbs
mostly 1.00-3.00 lower; sdls bellies 4.00 lower; lean trimmings not established.
Trading slow to moderate, with mostly light demand and mostly moderate to heavy
offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 100.0
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 2.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
04/21 102.0 59.91 73.12 70.56 38.85 106.46 45.90 72.78
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : -0.80</span> -2.11 -0.44 2.68 1.06 0.23 -4.42
-----------------------------------------------------------------------</pre><pre></pre><pre>NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA Tue, Apr 21, 2009 USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News
National Direct Hog Price Comparison
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
: National : Iowa : Western : Eastern
: : Minnesota : Cornbelt : Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
<span style="background-color: yellow;">BARROWS & GILTS : 1.84 hgr : 2.70 hgr : 2.16 hgr : .45 hgr</span>
Negotiated : : : :
CARCASS BASIS : 49.00-64.00 : 49.00-64.00 : 49.00-64.00 : 49.25-60.54
185 lb Base Hog : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg
Plant Delivered : 60.90 : 62.17 : 61.92 : 58.38
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count : 32,751 : 18,263 : 23,121 : 9,405
==========================================================================
</pre><br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-89811994102302875192009-04-20T15:54:00.000-05:002009-04-20T15:54:53.401-05:00Hog Comments - 04/20/09 - Most Ag commodities take a break today.<b style="font-family: arial;">CORN - May ‘09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.74 3/4, High - $3.84, Low - $3.60 1/2, Close - $3.69 1/2 Down $.06 3/4.</b><br />
<b style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term </b><b><span style="font-family: arial;">(6 months) </span></b><b style="font-family: arial;"> - Bullish/Higher</b><br />
<b style="font-family: arial;">Thursday <b>I said: </b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">“</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The May '09 corn contract is indeed looking for a bottom for the week but it doesn't seem to want to stop moving lower. I had an order in to buy May '09 corn at $3.76 3/4 to re-own what I exited at $4.03 but I didn't get my fill. I still have a bull call spread in place in case I am wrong. I think we will have an early low tomorrow and a late high because of the downward movement we've had this week and Friday profit taking and position squaring going into the weekend. I still have a cycle projection for corn to be soft (lower) into the week of next week.</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">”</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>May ‘09 corn:</b> My thoughts on corn getting stronger as the day progressed on Friday was obviously wrong and therefore I did not place my order to buy at $3.76 3/4 like I said I was going to. This is why I don't recommend doing as I write because I have the luxury of changing my mind before you read about it. If you have questions about something either email or call me! I had an order in today at $3.47 which is near down limit as a just in case order not expecting it to get there and it didn't. I also had an order during the last hour of trade to buy at $3.65 against my long $3.80 May '09 puts. This is an effort to manage the equity that I have in the $3.80 puts as well as give me a synthetic call option through Friday. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">As I mentioned before I have a cycle taking us lower this week however there is one thing I want to pay attention to and that is the open we had for May '09 corn on Sunday night. We opened at $3.74 3/4 when the weekly low was $3.76, this is a POTENTIALLY friendly opening. We have also backed off $.47 from the high of April 2nd to today's low so I am not that bearish at these levels. <br />
</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bottom line: </b>I am looking for the market to experience an early low and a late high because of my comments about high to low movement in the paragraph above. I will continue to try and buy around $3.65 or HIGHER if it looks like things may turn up.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> <br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>May '09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 04-21-09</b> </span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R3) Resistance 3: $3.76 3/4</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R2) Resistance 2: $3.73 3/4</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R1) Resistance 1: $3.71 1/4</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Today's close: $3.69 1/2</span></b><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S1) Support 1: $3.65 3/4</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S2) Support 2: $3.64 1/2</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S3) Support 3: $3.60 1/2 </span> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">_________________________________________________________________________</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<b style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $326.00, High - $331.00, Low - $318.50, Close - $319.20 Down $7.40</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher</span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span><b style="font-family: arial;">Thursday <b>I said</b></b><b style="font-family: arial;"><b>: </b></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">"</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Reading my thoughts from yesterday proves the market has a mind of its own and will do what it pleases as it screamed through my resistance levels. The sell stops below $314.50 were never tripped today because the market never got that low. There is another potential sell signal setup tonight if the market opens above $329.40 and trades below this level it will trigger a sell on the candle stick charts. I am keeping my call spreads in place for now to maintain ownership if the market continues to move higher and will look to get more aggressive positions in place on a price decline.</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">”</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>May ‘09 meal: </b>I continue to think the meal market has room for decline but <u>tomorrow</u> looks like an early low and late high type day. The May '09 meal contract is looking to confirm Friday's high of $333.90 as its high for the planting season. It wouldn't be surprising to see May '09 meal trade back near $305.80 which would be 50% of the most recent move. I will not chase the meal market at these levels but I still have a call spread in place to give me protection if the market moves higher on about 60% of my needs. I'm looking for a pull back toward $305.80 in the May '09 contract.<br />
</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bottom line: </b>I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the downside early tonight/tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">May '09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-21-09 </span></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
(R3) Resistance 3: $328.00</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
(R2) Resistance 2: $326.20</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
(R1) Resistance 1: $322.30</span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Today's close: $319.20</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
(S1) Support 1: $318.50</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
(S2) Support 2: $315.90</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S3) Support 3: $312.40</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">_________________________________________________________________________</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><b style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $73.20, High - $73.20, Low - $71.675, Close - $72.40 Down $1.325</span></b><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
Thoughts - Long Term </span></b><b><span style="font-family: arial;">(6 months) </span></b><b><span style="font-family: arial;"> - Friendly</span></b><br />
</span><b style="font-family: arial;">Thursday <b>I said</b></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><b>: </b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">“</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The early high and late low happened again today and tomorrow is showing signs of similar activity. Today's trade action on the daily chart was nothing to brag about as we closed near where we opened. The cash market was lower at noon which gave an excuse for the futures to move lower the balance of the day. As stated in the above paragraph I am sticking to a cautious short-term outlook in the hogs as we move into the last half of April with the seasonal tendency to move lower in years where we closed above $70.00 on April 15th in the June contract.</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">"</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span></span> <br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>June ‘09 hogs: </b>After looking at today's June '09 contract close I see that today was the lowest close we've had since April 2nd, 2009. Looking at the cycle still showing lower into ultimately next week and the intra-day chart showing a small retracement of today's larger down move early in the day; I don't have a ton of good to say about the market. I am sure with producers in the fields doing work we could see the cash market stay firmer as we move forward but the charts don't show me anything to get excited about. I will continue to stay short with my call strategy in place to give me upside potential if I am wrong. Based on my cycle indicator I see weakness into May 4th. <br />
</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bottom line: </b>I’m looking for the market to be lower tonight/tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high and I'm staying hedged for now. If we close below $72.175 tomorrow and Wednesday then I am looking for a test of $70.525.<br />
</span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">June '09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-21-09 </span></b><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R3) Resistance 3: $73.20</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R2) Resistance 2: $72.95</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R1) Resistance 1: $72.725</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Today's close: $72.30</span></b><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S1) Support 1: $71.95</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S2) Support 2: $71.675</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S3) Support 3: $72.00</span><br />
<br />
<pre>NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA Mon, Apr 20, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Friday's Close: Fresh bone-in loins mostly
weak; butts mostly 1.00 higher; processor cuts not tested; lean trimmings steady.
Trading slow to moderate, with light to moderate demand and mostly moderate
offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 85.5
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 9.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
04/20 94.5 60.71 75.23 71.00 36.17 105.40 45.67 77.19
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : -0.17</span> 2.91 0.96 -0.63 -0.42 -3.71 unc
-----------------------------------------------------------------------</pre><pre></pre><pre>NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA Mon, Apr 20, 2009 USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News
National Direct Hog Price Comparison
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
: National : Iowa : Western : Eastern
: : Minnesota : Cornbelt : Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
<span style="background-color: yellow;">BARROWS & GILTS : .70 hgr : .21 hgr : .57 hgr : 1.28 hgr</span>
Negotiated : : : :
CARCASS BASIS : 48.25-62.16 : 49.50-62.16 : 49.50-62.16 : 48.25-62.00
185 lb Base Hog : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg
Plant Delivered : 59.00 : 59.38 : 59.77 : 57.93
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count : 27,381 : 9,879 : 15,390 : 11,547
==========================================================================
</pre><br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-76455036598129541502009-04-16T15:19:00.000-05:002009-04-16T15:19:25.893-05:00Hog Comments - 04/16/09 - Meal takes center stage today.<b style="font-family: arial;">CORN - May ‘09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.85 1/4, High - $3.89 1/2, Low - $3.80 3/4, Close - $3.85 3/4 Up $.01 1/4.</b><br />
<b style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term </b><b><span style="font-family: arial;">(6 months) </span></b><b style="font-family: arial;"> - Bullish/Higher</b><br />
<b style="font-family: arial;"><b>Yesterday I said: </b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">“</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Early resistance was a common theme in corn today the session high was indeed made early in the day. Today's trade in the May '09 contract was ugly to put it lightly and we closed below yesterday's low which isn't encouraging. As I've said recently I am looking for an opportunity to purchase May '09 corn around $3.76 1/2 if I can. $3.76 3/4 is our next downside target assuming we can break Monday's low of $3.83. I will gain ownership at $3.76 1/2 if possible against the $2.80 put options we own. I think this down turn in the market is a correction of what will be a longer-term higher move in the market based off of inflation fears. </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I am looking for the market to have follow through to the downside tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">”</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>May ‘09 corn:</b> The May '09 corn contract is indeed looking for a bottom for the week but it doesn't seem to want to stop moving lower. I had an order in to buy May '09 corn at $3.76 3/4 to re-own what I exited at $4.03 but I didn't get my fill. I still have a bull call spread in place in case I am wrong. I think we will have an early low tomorrow and a late high because of the downward movement we've had this week and Friday profit taking and position squaring going into the weekend. I still have a cycle projection for corn to be soft (lower) into the week of next week.<br />
</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bottom line: </b>I am looking for the market to experience an early low and a late high because of the aforementioned profit-taking going into the weekend. I will continue to try and buy around $3.76 3/4. <br />
</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>May '09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 04-17-09</b> </span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R3) Resistance 3: $3.94 3/4</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R2) Resistance 2: $3.89 3/4</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R1) Resistance 1: $3.87 3/4</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Today's close: $3.85 3/4</span></b><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S1) Support 1: $3.85</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S2) Support 2: $3.80 3/4</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S3) Support 3: $3.76 3/4 </span> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">_________________________________________________________________________</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<b style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $317.10, High - $329.40, Low - $316.80, Close - $329.40 Up $12.10</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher</span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span><b style="font-family: arial;"><b>Yesterday I said: </b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-weight: normal;"></span></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">"</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the downside tonight/tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high. I still feel the market is near a top and today could very well be this week's high. I will wait to re-enter an aggressive position in the market until we get back near $300.00 if we get there. Technically speaking there could be more sell stops below $314.50 tomorrow.</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">”</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>May ‘09 meal: </b>Reading my thoughts from yesterday proves the market has a mind of its own and will do what it pleases as it screamed through my resistance levels. The sell stops below $314.50 were never tripped today because the market never got that low. There is another potential sell signal setup tonight if the market opens above $329.40 and trades below this level it will trigger a sell on the candle stick charts. I am keeping my call spreads in place for now to maintain ownership if the market continues to move higher and will look to get more aggressive positions in place on a price decline.<br />
</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bottom line: </b>I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the upside early tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I see a potential sell signal ONLY if we open at $329.50 or higher in tonight's trade. If the market opens slightly lower, then it is primed for a follow through move higher tomorrow. Stay objective in this market and don't chase it if you don't have coverage in place; if you need to protect meal use a call option for now and buy on a dip.<br />
</span><br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">May '09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-17-09 </span></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
(R3) Resistance 3: $348.70</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
(R2) Resistance 2: $340.10</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
(R1) Resistance 1: $332.80</span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Today's close: $329.40</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
(S1) Support 1: $324.00</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
(S2) Support 2: $321.10</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S3) Support 3: $3</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">18.60</span> <br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">_________________________________________________________________________</span></span> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><b style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $73.40, High - $74.10, Low - $73.175, Close - $73.275 Up $.225</span></b><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
Thoughts - Long Term </span></b><b><span style="font-family: arial;">(6 months) </span></b><b><span style="font-family: arial;"> - Friendly</span></b><br />
<b style="font-family: arial;"><b>Yesterday I said: </b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">“</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I’m looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I expect the June ‘09 hog contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength because of higher cash and cutout but falter as the day progresses. Seasonally we tend to move lower from today's close until the April 30th close and I will stick with the 80% odds of that seasonality along with the other signals that show up to support that type of move.</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">"</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>June ‘09 hogs: </b>The early high and late low happened again today and tomorrow is showing signs of similar activity. Today's trade action on the daily chart was nothing to brag about as we closed near where we opened. The cash market was lower at noon which gave an excuse for the futures to move lower the balance of the day. As stated in the above paragraph I am sticking to a cautious short-term outlook in the hogs as we move into the last half of April with the seasonal tendency to move lower in years where we closed above $70.00 on April 15th in the June contract. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><br />
</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bottom line: </b>I’m looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. Once again the cutout was up by $.65 today and should provide some support for tomorrow's market; however, nothing is a "secret" anymore so I expect that some of today's positive cutout news has already been traded. I am sticking to my thoughts of early high and late low for tomorrows June '09 hog trade.<br />
</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">June '09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-17-09 </span></b><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R3) Resistance 3: $74.85</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R2) Resistance 2: $74.10</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R1) Resistance 1: $73.75</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Today's close: $73.275</span></b><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S1) Support 1: $73.05</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S2) Support 2: $72.80</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S3) Support 3: $72.00</span><br />
<br />
<pre>NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA Thu, Apr 16, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Wednesday's Close: Fresh loins generally steady
to firm; butts mostly steady; sknd hams 23-27 lbs 3.00 lower, other weights not
tested; sdls bellies not tested; lean trimmings steady. Trading slow, with light
to moderate demand and mostly light offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 72.75
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 6.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
04/16 78.8 61.91 77.65 69.43 35.79 107.54 48.73 76.71
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : 0.65</span> 2.02 -0.10 1.42 4.35 -0.80 unc
-----------------------------------------------------------------------</pre><pre></pre><pre>The Afternoon Price report was available at the time of this release so <a href="http://marketnews.usda.gov/gear/browseby/txt/NW_LS831.TXT">click here</a></pre><pre>for the report.
</pre><pre></pre><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-55410068689729456192009-04-15T16:17:00.000-05:002009-04-15T16:17:21.983-05:00Hog Comments - 04-15-09 - Hogs inch... ahh, who am I kidding. IT'S TAX DAY!<b style="font-family: arial;">CORN - May ‘09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.94, High - $3.94 3/4, Low - $3.84, Close - $3.84 1/2 Down $.09 3/4.</b><br />
<b style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term </b><b><span style="font-family: arial;">(6 months) </span></b><b style="font-family: arial;"> - Bullish/Higher</b><b style="font-family: arial;"><b></b></b><br />
<br />
<b style="font-family: arial;"><b>Yesterday I said: </b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">“</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b> </b>I am looking for the market to have follow through to the upside tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I look for support to be $3.93 1/4, $3.92 and $3.87 3/4. Resistance should show up at $3.95 1/4, $3.98 1/4 and $4.04. I expect the May ‘09 corn contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength and then meet resistance early.</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">”</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>May ‘09 corn:</b> Early resistance was a common theme in corn today the session high was indeed made early in the day. Today's trade in the May '09 contract was ugly to put it lightly and we closed below yesterday's low which isn't encouraging. As I've said recently I am looking for an opportunity to purchase May '09 corn around $3.76 1/2 if I can. $3.76 3/4 is our next downside target assuming we can break Monday's low of $3.83. I will gain ownership at $3.76 1/2 if possible against the $2.80 put options we own. I think this down turn in the market is a correction of what will be a longer-term higher move in the market based off of inflation fears. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bottom line: </b>I am looking for the market to have follow through to the downside tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high. I don't look for a test of R3 tomorrow but I think the market will be looking for this week's bottom tomorrow. <br />
</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>May '09 Corn - Support/Resistance for 04-16-09</b> </span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R3) Resistance 3: $3.92 3/4</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R2) Resistance 2: $3.91</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R1) Resistance 1: $3.88 1/4</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Today's close: $3.84 1/2</span></b><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S1) Support 1: $3.83</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S2) Support 2: $3.79</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S3) Support 3: $3.76 3/4</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">_________________________________________________________________________</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> <br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<b style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $315.80, High - $321.80, Low - $314.50, Close - $317.30 Up $1.00</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher</span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span><b style="font-family: arial;"><b>Yesterday I said: </b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">“</span></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b></b>I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the upside tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I look for support to be $314.50, $313.50 and $312.10. Resistance should show up at $316.90, $319.00 and $325.20. I expect the May ‘09 meal contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength and then meet resistance early. **IF get above $319.00 either tonight/tomorrow or Thursday and move back below this level then I have a sell signal at $318.50 on the daily chart. If filled based on the sell signal then the protective buy stop order to manage risk would be $.50 above the current session high.** This is an observation only and it provides confidence in what the charts have already been saying at these levels, be careful if your long. As always please do what is right for your operation, take this information as insight not recommendation.</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">”</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>May ‘09 meal: </b>The early high and late low pattern worked on May '09 meal today but I think we may have some additional downside tomorrow. The signal that I talked about in the paragraph above was executed today and I did take the trade however I exited the straight futures portion of our position at $318.10 instead of the $318.50 stop like I said yesterday. I still have the call spreads in place to the upside in the event I am wrong because we still need protection. I will look for an opportunity to purchase these futures at a lower price if we can.<br />
</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bottom line: </b>I’m looking for the market to have follow through to the downside tonight/tomorrow and experience an early low and a late high. I still feel the market is near a top and today could very well be this week's high. I will wait to re-enter an aggressive position in the market until we get back near $300.00 if we get there. Technically speaking there could be more sell stops below $314.50 tomorrow. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">May '09 Meal - Support/Resistance for 04-16-09 </span></b><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R3) Resistance 3: $321.80</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R2) Resistance 2: $319.30</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R1) Resistance 1: $318.60</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Today's close: $317.30</span></b><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S1) Support 1: $315.50</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S2) Support 2: $313.10</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S3) Support 3: $310.90</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">_________________________________________________________________________</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<b style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $72.75, High - $73.475, Low - $72.00, Close - $73.05 Up $.45</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term </span></b><b><span style="font-family: arial;">(6 months) </span></b><b><span style="font-family: arial;"> - Friendly</span></b><br />
<br />
<b style="font-family: arial;"><b>Yesterday I said: </b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">“</span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I’m looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I look for support to be $72.60, $71.95 and $71.05. Resistance should show up at $73.35, $73.55 and $74.25. I expect the June ‘09 hog contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength because of higher cash and cutout but falter as the day progresses. I am looking for a test of $70.52 within the next week if we close below $72.70 tomorrow in the June ‘09 contract."</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>June ‘09 hogs: </b>I haven't altered my thoughts on the June '09 hog contract for now as I believe it has some room to move to the downside in the next week or so. Cash and cutout were both higher this afternoon so it should give the market a small boost tomorrow. Today we retraced around 62% of yesterday's move which is typical but the low of today also completed a 62% retracement back to our low of $70.52 from March 30th. The market is trending lower but I still need to see a close below $72.70 if we are going to test $70.52 and we didn't get it today. <b><br />
</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bottom line: </b>I’m looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I expect the June ‘09 hog contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength because of higher cash and cutout but falter as the day progresses. Seasonally we tend to move lower from today's close until the April 30th close and I will stick with the 80% odds of that seasonality along with the other signals that show up to support that type of move.<br />
</span><br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">June '09 Hogs - Support/Resistance for 04-16-09 </span></b><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R3) Resistance 3: $74.25</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R2) Resistance 2: $73.75</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(R1) Resistance 1: $73.475</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Today's close: $73.05</span></b><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S1) Support 1: $72.55</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S2) Support 2: $72.15</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(S3) Support 3: $70.525</span><br />
<br />
<pre>NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA Wed, Apr 15, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Tuesday's Close: Fresh bone-in loins 2.00-6.00
higher; butts steady to 3.00 lower; sknd hams 20-27 lbs 2.00 higher; sdls
bellies not established; lean trimmings steady. Trading slow, with light to
moderate demand and offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 58.5
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 15.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
04/15 73.5 61.26 75.63 69.53 34.38 103.19 49.53 76.71
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : 0.60</span> -1.33 0.68 -5.46 -0.13 5.98 0.03
-----------------------------------------------------------------------</pre><pre></pre><pre>NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA Wed, Apr 15, 2009 USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News
National Direct Hog Price Comparison
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
: National : Iowa : Western : Eastern
: : Minnesota : Cornbelt : Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
<span style="background-color: yellow;">BARROWS & GILTS : .83 hgr : .70 hgr : .79 hgr : .78 hgr</span>
Negotiated : : : :
CARCASS BASIS : 46.00-58.45 : 52.70-58.45 : 46.00-58.45 : 47.50-58.00
185 lb Base Hog : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg
Plant Delivered : 56.09 : 56.50 : 56.69 : 55.05
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count : 23,141 : 9,987 : 14,840 : 8,101
==========================================================================
</pre><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">_________________________________________________________________________</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-5027014386761179822009-04-14T16:50:00.000-05:002009-04-14T16:50:56.013-05:00Hog Comments - 04-14-09 - I knew pigs couldn't fly.<strong style="font-family: arial;">CORN - May ‘09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.87, High - $3.99, Low - $3.85 1/4, Close - $3.94 1/4 Up $.06 3/4.</strong><br />
<strong style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term </strong><strong><span style="font-family: arial;">(6 months) </span></strong><strong style="font-family: arial;"> - Bullish/Higher</strong><br />
<br />
<strong style="font-family: arial;"><b>Yesterday I said: </b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">"</span></strong><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I am still bullish corn for reasons other than grain fundamentals, the U.S. Dollar Index was down 1.23 as I was writing this today and I am more concerned about the U.S. Dollar as a fundamental to corn than I am weather. Support for tomorrow’s market looks like $3.85 3/4, $3.83 and then down to $3.76 3/4. Resistance should be $3.89 1/2, $3.90 1/2 and then up to $3.94. I am expecting a sideways market tomorrow, there were signs of bottom picking today and would suggest buy stops above $3.90 1/2 for tomorrow but I am not convinced of it yet. I am still cautious in the short-term at this price level but I am willing to begin scaling in purchases around $3.76 1/2 which will replace my long call spreads I talked about before."</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>May '09 corn: </b>I didn't get my sideways market like I thought I would today but we did hold support near my first number of $3.85 3/4 but I was off by $.05 on the upside for resistance. You will notice I said I was waiting for $3.76 1/2, which I still am but I do have a call spread in place in case I am wrong so we still have protection in place if the market moves higher. We didn't manage to close above the 50% retracement level of $3.95 1/4 so as of now this is still just a bounce, we need to close above $3.95 1/4 for a couple days before look to $4.07 as a target. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bottom line: </b>I am looking for the market to have follow through to the upside tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I look for support to be $3.93 1/4, $3.92 and $3.87 3/4. Resistance should show up at $3.95 1/4, $3.98 1/4 and $4.04. I expect the May '09 corn contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength and then meet resistance early.</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<strong style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - May ‘09 Electronic</strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $312.80, High - $319.00, Low - $312.40, Close - $316.30 Up $3.20</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher</span></strong><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<strong style="font-family: arial;"><b>Yesterday I said: </b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">"</span></strong><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I am looking for an early high and a late low tomorrow. Support for tomorrow looks like $311.40, $310.6 and finally $307.80. Resistance should be $315.00 and then $319.00 if the market gets enough steam to get there. Like I said earlier I am looking for an early high and a late low for tomorrow’s meal trade. We are nearing a cycle high in meal which would last until the middle of May ‘09; this is not a recommendation of any kind, just a stated observation."</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>May '09 meal: </b>The early high did come in the first hour of trade today as well as the low in the last hour of trade but the low was still above my first support point and we nailed the resistance with my second number from yesterday. After making a high at $319.00 again today we have a small double top formation for the time being. I am still in the camp that meal looks toppy at this level and I don't want to be an aggressive owner of futures or cash at these levels. I have a majority of ownership via known risk call spreads which I intend to keep for the moment. <br />
</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bottom line: </b>I'm looking for the market to have follow through to the upside tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I look for support to be $314.50, $313.50 and $312.10. Resistance should show up at $316.90, $319.00 and $325.20. I expect the May '09 meal contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength and then meet resistance early. **IF get above $319.00 either tonight/tomorrow or Thursday and move back below this level then I have a sell signal at $318.50 on the daily chart. If filled based on the sell signal then the protective buy stop order to manage risk would be $.50 above the current session high.** This is an observation only and it provides confidence in what the charts have already been saying at these levels, be careful if your long. As always please do what is right for your operation, take this information as insight not recommendation.<br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<strong style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - June ‘09 GLOBEX</strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $74.15, High - $74.25, Low - $72.45, Close - $72.60 Down $1.50</span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: arial;">(6 months) </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: arial;"> - Friendly</span></strong><br />
<br />
<strong style="font-family: arial;"><b>Yesterday I said: </b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-weight: normal;">"</span></strong><span style="font-family: arial;">I am looking for an early high and a late low tomorrow as we are approaching the 15th of April and the May and June ‘09 contracts have a sizable lead on the cash index. I expect support to be $73.97, $73.72 and $73.35. I am looking for resistance to be $74.40, $74.82 and then $75.90 but I don’t expect this level to be touched tomorrow. I am looking for a near-term top in hogs this week and the beginning of a small retracement of the recent move higher.</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">"</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>June '09 hogs: </b>I didn't do very well in projecting accurate support and resistance for today's trade but the market action projections were spot on with an early high and a late low. I know I know rocket science right? : ) All kidding aside, I don't think the June '09 hog contract has much upside left for the next week or so. I believe this is the beginning of a retracement in what should be a longer-term move higher. <br />
</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bottom line: </b>I'm looking for the market to be higher tonight/tomorrow and experience an early high and a late low. I look for support to be $72.60, $71.95 and $71.05. Resistance should show up at $73.35, $73.55 and $74.25. I expect the June '09 hog contract to open higher tonight and follow through with early strength because of higher cash and cutout but falter as the day progresses. I am looking for a test of $70.52 within the next week if we close below $72.70 tomorrow in the June '09 contract.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<pre>NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA Tue, Apr 14, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Monday's Close: Fresh loins firm to 5.00
higher; butts generally steady; sknd hams 17-20 lbs 2.00-4.00 lower from last
quote, other weights not established; sdls bellies not tested; lean trimmings
steady to 1.00 higher. Trading slow to moderate, with mostly moderate demand
and light to moderate offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 86.88
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 10.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
04/14 96.9 60.66 76.95 68.85 39.84 103.32 43.55 76.68
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : 0.67</span> 2.75 -0.30 -0.10 -0.64 0.12 unc
-----------------------------------------------------------------------</pre><pre></pre><pre>NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA Tue, Apr 14, 2009 USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News
National Direct Hog Price Comparison
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
: National : Iowa : Western : Eastern
: : Minnesota : Cornbelt : Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
<span style="background-color: yellow;">BARROWS & GILTS : .01 hgr : .26 hgr : .17 hgr : .24 lwr</span>
Negotiated : : : :
CARCASS BASIS : 46.75-57.23 : 48.50-57.09 : 48.50-57.23 : 46.75-56.08
185 lb Base Hog : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg
Plant Delivered : 55.19 : 55.74 : 55.86 : 54.27
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count : 26,504 : 11,039 : 15,382 : 10,942
==========================================================================
</pre><br />
<br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-55575144353539750112009-04-13T16:39:00.001-05:002009-04-13T16:48:34.583-05:00Hog Comments - 04-13-09 - Hogs hold steady while feeds look for direction.<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">It has been a while since my last post as my schedule has been crazy this past month, however, it looks like beginning this week I should have more of a normal schedule and get back to regular postings. I have been working on updating www.leanhog.net (which will now give you a "site under construction" page until I am finished) to provide you with more quality information that is accessible when you need it. I am excited about the new site and I hope you are too because I think you will enjoy it. I plan to have the updated site completed prior to the end of the month and maybe sooner rather than later as I have made good progress.<br />
<br />
<b style="font-family: arial;">CORN - May '09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.90, High - $3.90 1/2, Low - $3.83, Close - $3.87 3/4 Down $.02 3/4.</b><br />
<b style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term </b><b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">(6 months) </span></b><b style="font-family: arial;"> - Bullish/Higher</b><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">May '09 corn opened the day session on a weaker note with Crude Oil down over $3.00 a barrel and the Dow Jones off by more than 100 points. We still haven't cleared any area to make me extremely concerned about the drawback we've had in corn as a matter of fact it has been somewhat anticipated. I am only long 25% of needs with $2.80 puts in place to cover me to the downside; I also have a call spread on to the upside to make sure we have the coverage we need if I am wrong. I exited all of my long futures positions around $4.03 1/2 and re-entered 25% of them at $4.02 because the market didn't break as soon as I thought it would. I also placed some cheap call spreads in place last Thursday to get through the weekend and/or until I re-establish my long positions against my $2.80 puts. </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><p>I had orders in today to buy another 50% of my needs at $3.76 1/2 in the May '09 contract but we didn't get that low. We are now in the time-frame in which the corn market will be controlled to some degree by weather and planting progress. As of right now I am looking for a test of $3.76 in the May '09 contract and possibly a test of $3.68 1/2 if the weather stay's nice. Forecast's change and as of right now my cycle indicator says there isn't much to look forward to in the next couple of weeks in corn.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><p>Bottom line - I am still bullish corn for reasons other than grain fundamentals, the U.S. Dollar Index was down 1.23 as I was writing this today and I am more concerned about the U.S. Dollar as a fundamental to corn than I am weather. Support for tomorrow's market looks like $3.85 3/4, $3.83 and then down to $3.76 3/4. Resistance should be $3.89 1/2, $3.90 1/2 and then up to $3.94. I am expecting a sideways market tomorrow, there were signs of bottom picking today and would suggest buy stops above $3.90 1/2 for tomorrow but I am not convinced of it yet. I am still cautious in the short-term at this price level but I am willing to begin scaling in purchases around $3.76 1/2 which will replace my long call spreads I talked about before.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><p><b style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - May '09 Electronic</b><br />
<b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $311.10, High - $315.00, Low - $307.80, Close - $313.10 Up $1.90</span></b><br />
<b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher</span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> I said in one of my previous posts that I exited some of my meal because wanted to protect equity but would stop back into the market if I was wrong. I was wrong and therefore bought meal on about 40% of needs with futures against my long puts and then purchased a cheap call spread to give me coverage to the upside if the market makes an extended move. I am not sold on the idea the May '09 meal market is going to sky rocket from here but I know I am not smarter than the market. I see signs on the charts that tell me meal is looking for a top thus I have less aggressive ownership in futures and more in a know risk position. I had a sell signal in May '09 soybeans on Thursday at $10.23 1/2 which is still good even after today's action, it will be void if we touch $10.31 1/2 before a sell off. </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><p>Bottom line - I am looking for an early high and a late low tomorrow. Support for tomorrow looks like $311.40, $310.6 and finally $307.80. Resistance should be $315.00 and then $319.00 if the market gets enough steam to get there. Like I said earlier I am looking for an early high and a late low for tomorrow's meal trade. We are nearing a cycle high in meal which would last until the middle of May '09; this is not a recommendation of any kind, just a stated observation. </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - June '09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $74.30, High - $74.425, Low - $73.725, Close - $74.10 Down $.175</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term </span></b><b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">(6 months) </span></b><b><span style="font-family: arial;"> - Friendly</span></b><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: arial;">Thursday's higher cutout was obviously factored into Thursday's trade because there was very little enthusiasm in the June '09 contract today. The cutout for today was also higher by $.51 but the market failed to respond favorably in extended hour's trade. The June '09 contract has a cycle high approaching on Wednesday and then trends lower for nearly a week. The June '09 contract closed above what had been resistance of $73.85 on Thursday and continued with today's close at $74.10. The longer we stay above $73.85 the stronger our chances of rallying back toward $75.90, however, I think we will see $73.20 before we see $75.90.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial;">The U.S. Dollar Index was very weak today and is still in a downward trend and I am expecting a test of the most recent low of $82.63 over the weeks ahead. If the U.S. Dollar Index continues to weaken we could see more bullishness appear in the hog sector. I am still short June '09 hogs with a call strategy in place to give me upside to $80.00 if the market should rally. I want good confirmation that the market is finished moving lower before I exit short positions especially when I have call coverage in place to provide upside protection. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial;">Seasonal tendencies for market close on April 15th to the market close on May 1st are as follows since the year 2000 in June futures. There have been 4 years we have moved higher on average of $2.60 and 5 years when we move lower by an average of $2.18. Looks like it is pretty even BUT when you filter the data and only look for years that were above $70.00 June futures on the market close of April 15th the data changes. In this case there were 5 years since 2000 in which the June futures closed above $70.00 on April 15th for the respective year. In those years the market declined 4 times on average of $2.16/cwt or 80% of the time vs. the 1 year that it went up $1.275/cwt or 20% of the time. I know it isn't April 15th yet but I will probably wait to see what the market is trading at on the 15th before making any adjustments to positions.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I am looking for an early high and a late low tomorrow as we are approaching the 15th of April and the May and June '09 contracts have a sizable lead on the cash index. I expect support to be $73.97, $73.72 and $73.35. I am looking for resistance to be $74.40, $74.82 and then $75.90 but I don't expect this level to be touched tomorrow. I am looking for a near-term top in hogs this week and the beginning of a small retracement of the recent move higher.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial;"> <br />
</span><br />
<pre>NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA Mon, Apr 13, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Friday's Close: Fresh bone-in loins not tested;
butts 3.00-4.00 higher; sknd hams 20-23 lbs 2.00 higher from last quote, other
weights not established; sdls bellies not tested; lean trimmings steady. Trading
slow, with light to moderate demand and light offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 22.75
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 9.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
04/13 31.8 59.99 74.20 69.15 39.94 103.96 43.43 76.68
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : 0.51</span> -0.09 2.72 0.13 1.57 0.85 0.02
-----------------------------------------------------------------------</pre><pre></pre><pre>NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA Mon, Apr 13, 2009 USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News
National Direct Hog Price Comparison
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
: National : Iowa : Western : Eastern
: : Minnesota : Cornbelt : Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
<span style="background-color: yellow;">BARROWS & GILTS : .06 hgr : .64 lwr : .31 lwr : 1.38 hgr</span>
Negotiated : : : :
CARCASS BASIS : 46.75-57.09 : 48.00-57.09 : 47.00-57.09 : 46.75-56.99
185 lb Base Hog : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg
Plant Delivered : 55.20 : 55.46 : 55.69 : 54.57
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count : 13,144 : 5,254 : 7,102 : 5,849
==========================================================================
</pre><br />
<span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><b><span style="font-family: arial;"> <br />
</span></b><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-86606179408507421992009-04-02T18:59:00.001-05:002009-04-02T20:07:02.945-05:00Hog Comments - 04-03-09 - Sorry no comments today.<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I am sorry but there will be no commentary today. If you have a question please shoot me an email and I will do my best to get back to you as soon as I can. My long term thoughts haven't changed from yesterday's post but it is evident my thoughts for today were off. I am looking for consolidation for now in the corn, soybeans and meal and hogs still need a test of $69.52 but cutout being up $1.13 today doesn't allow for a great chance for that to happen tomorrow. Early high in hogs tomorrow in my opinion and position evening going into the weekend in grains.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Jeremy</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-86825916726520814862009-04-01T17:00:00.000-05:002009-04-01T17:00:28.492-05:00Hog Comments - 04-01-09 - A likely test of contract low's in June hogs tomorrow.<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> <b style="font-family: arial;">CORN - May '09 Electronic<br />
Open - $4.01 1/2, High - $4.02 1/4, Low - $3.93, Close - $3.96 Down $.8 3/4.</b><br />
<b style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term </b><b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">(6 months) </span></b><b style="font-family: arial;"> - Bullish/Higher</b><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>As a review from yesterday I said "<span style="font-family: arial;">I expect to see an early high and a late low tomorrow as enthusiasm expires over today's USDA report findings. I look for early resistance tonight at $4.06-.07 then all the way up to $4.13 (don't think we will get there) and support should be $4.03, $3.99 3/4 and $3.96 1/2 but I think the $4.00 area should hold pretty good support. ***IF MAY '09 OPENS ABOVE $4.06 TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING A MORE NEGATIVE TONE TO TOMORROW THAT WHAT I HAVE DISCUSSED.*** I don't think we will open above $4.06 but I wanted to point it out if it does so you know what to expect from the market."</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">As stated above the enthusiasm from yesterday's acreage report seems to have run its course. I thought the $4.00 area would provide good support but not so. The crude oil market was down most of the day and the U.S. Dollar Index wasn't doing anything crazy so I attribute today's action to the corn market trading the corn market and nothing else. The May '09 contract broke through the low side of my support point today but closed at $3.96 just 1/2 cent off the support level. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">To no surprise i</span><span style="font-family: arial;">t didn't reach my resistance level either because of the move we made yesterday.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I exited some short $3.60 May '09 put options today (it was the short side of a put spread against long futures) for $.03 just to take them off of the books and leave my long $3.80 put in place to leave the downside open if the market decides to turn and head south (unlikely). I am still in the camp of having good strategies in place to allow for upside participation in the market as I think we have a shot at testing $4.40 in the May '09 futures in the next 30 days.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - Nothing happened today to make me think yesterday's rally was a fluke, as a matter of fact today's action was perfectly normal in my opinion. We retraced 50% of yesterday's move and held that support level which suggests we could make another run at the most recent high of $4.06 in the near future. I expect an early low and a late high tomorrow with support coming in at $3.93, $3.90 1/2 and resistance at $3.99 1/2, $4.01 and $4.06 and if we get excited $4.13 however I think it is unlikely for tomorrow. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - May '09 Electronic</b><br />
<b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $293.00, High - $298.30, Low - $291.80, Close - $294.30 Down $1.00</span></b><br />
<b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher</span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
<br />
I said yesterday "</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">the close on May '09 meal was a positive one today but like corn I think we may have gotten too excited to keep a strong rally like this going for two consecutive days. I'm looking for a steady to better open tonight only to find resistance at $296.40 then $298.70. Support should be around $293.20, $292.30 and $291.30. I am looking for an early high and a late low tomorrow in May '09 meal."</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">My support and resistance levels were much better in meal today than they were in corn. May '09 meal got within $.40 of my top resistance level and $.50 of my lowest support level. Like corn, May '09 meal retraced near 50% of yesterday's day session move and bounced from there. I still like the prospect of a higher meal market through time and want upside coverage in place as we move forward. That being said I exited my long meal contracts today at $294.80ish and will look to re-enter the market at a lower level if possible otherwise I will have my stop above the market to get back long if I'm wrong. I currently have a $280.00 May '09 put in place to protect downside risk on my futures (exited today) and that's what I will purchase against if the market gets to $284.00. $284.00 is just above a gap that was left in the hourly chart yesterday and they are typically a target to go back and fill.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I am still bullish meal and soybeans but I am still looking for a tad more downside in the May '09 meal contract. I expect an early low and a late high tomorrow with support coming in at $291.80, $288.1 and $285.50. I see resistance at $295.90, $296.40 and $298.30.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> <b style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - June '09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $71.95, High - $72.50, Low - $70.925, Close - $71.45 Down $.95</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term </span></b><b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">(6 months) </span></b><b><span style="font-family: arial;"> - Friendly</span></b><br />
<br />
</div><span style="font-family: arial;">Reviewing yesterday I said "</span><span style="font-family: arial;">The market held just above my $70.52 support number and traded .52 above my high end resistance number and closed above it for the day. The issue I have with the market doing this today is its quarter/month end and strange things can happen on days like today. I am not buying into today's trade action just yet, because there is no evidence of a stronger cash market and cutout dropped by $.99 today. </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I look for an early high and a late low tomorrow with resistance at $72.725 then $73.20 and support should be at $71.45 and $70.675. Cutout was down today which is in line with what the short-term charts show for tomorrow, a negative trade day. Tomorrow is the cycle low but it is more of a general area it isn't a signal to buy so as I said yesterday I will continue to look for signs in the market that suggest the move lower is over."</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Like I said it seems like funny things happen on the last day of the month and especially the quarter in some markets particularly the hog market. Today confirmed that thought with June '09 giving back most of its gains from yesterday. Cash hogs are still in the toilet and the prospects of higher prices don't look that great at the moment and cutout has shown us over the course of two days that product isn't moving that well either. I remain hedged with upside potential to $80.00 in the June '09 contract. I am looking for signs of a market bottom but they are not showing up we didn't buy into the head fake the market gave us yesterday. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Bottom line - I'm looking for June '09 to continue lower tomorrow and I am expecting an early low AND high, I think the high and low of the day session will be during the first hour of trade tomorrow. The cutout was <u><b>down</b></u> $1.69 (I wish it were an April Fool's joke!) today so I expect nerves of those that are long to be on high alert and just puke out of positions as we can easily make new contract lows tomorrow. I am looking for a test of $69.52 tomorrow and I will need to see how we close tomorrow to decide if my cycle low this week is going to have any merit. Support in June '09 hogs for tomorrow should be $70.675, $69.52 then limit lower at $68.45. Resistance should be $71.52 and $71.70 but I don't think we will touch either of them, tomorrow could be ugly.</span><br />
<br />
<pre>NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA Wed, Apr 01, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Tuesday's Close: Fresh 1/4" trim loins firm;
butts steady to 1.00 lower; sknd hams 1.00 lower; sdls bellies 14-16 lbs 1.00
lower; lean trimmings not established. Trading mostly moderate, with moderate
demand and moderate to heavy offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 126.38
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 1.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
04/01 127.4 55.00 66.26 62.59 39.61 98.36 36.39 74.90
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : -1.69</span> -4.46 0.03 -0.20 0.64 -1.97 -0.49
-----------------------------------------------------------------------</pre><pre></pre><pre>NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA Wed, Apr 01, 2009 USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News
National Direct Hog Price Comparison
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
: National : Iowa : Western : Eastern
: : Minnesota : Cornbelt : Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
<span style="background-color: yellow;">BARROWS & GILTS : .31 lwr : .10 lwr : .54 lwr : .02 hgr</span>
Negotiated : : : :
CARCASS BASIS : 45.25-59.26 : 45.25-59.26 : 45.25-59.26 : 45.50-58.11
185 lb Base Hog : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg
Plant Delivered : 56.23 : 57.35 : 56.94 : 54.66
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count : 24,765 : 11,167 : 16,568 : 7,827
==========================================================================
</pre><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-78010214063353938722009-03-31T15:42:00.030-05:002009-03-31T16:23:18.898-05:00Hog Comments - 03-31-09 - Feed grains higher with new highs in sight?<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">CORN - May '09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.86, High - $4.06, Low - $3.81 1/4, Close - $4.04 3/4 Up $.18 1/2.</b><br />
<b style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term </b><b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">(6 months) </span></b><b style="font-family: arial;"> - Bullish/Higher</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Reviewing yesterday's comments I said "</span><span style="font-family: arial;">USDA report out tomorrow so that will trump any direction I have if there is a surprise. The trade is looking for corn acres to be around 86 million so anything less (85 or less in my opinion) will be positive to corn prices and I look for trade to give us an early low and a late high. Support in May '09 corn tomorrow should be $3.82, $3.81 and $3.76 3/4 while resistance should be $3.87 1/4, $3.89 1/2 then $3.92. I had a buy signal at $3.85 today with a risk management sell stop at $3.75 1/2. Market action today suggests a probable reversal to the upside tomorrow with buy stops above today's high's of $3.89 1/2.</span><span style="font-family: arial;">"</span><br />
<br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">CORRECTION - I said yesterday the trade was looking for corn acres to be 86 million when in fact it they were looking for 84.4 million acres for this year's intentions. 86 million was last year's actual plantings, my apologies. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The May '09 contract got within 1/4 cent of my mid range support level today and shattered the top end of my resistance level. As I have said for a while I want my core position in corn to be a bullish biased position to protect against moves like today. I said anything below 85 million acres should be viewed as positive by the trade and today's number was just a shade below 85 million acres. The market also responded the way the chart's suggested by having an early low and a late high today. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> <br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> Today's close was a good one; the funds purchased approximately 10,000 contracts of corn and managed to close above the 62% retracement level of $4.03 in the May '09 contract. I am looking for a steady to higher opening tonight and then find resistance around $4.06 to $4.07. I expect the market to retrace some of today's gains during tomorrow's trade but bottom line is if we close above $4.03 tomorrow then we could be on our way to the number I have talked about for a couple of weeks, $4.40. We closed above what has been good resistance at $4.00 now we just need to make sure it was for real. Make sure you have some type of option coverage in place to the upside, talk with your broker about a strategy that is right for you and your operation.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Today was an event day as I like to call it. I like to sit back and watch other people trade on "event days" as a matter of fact report days make for good vacation days. Huh? My point is prepare yourself going into reports or events and know your risk therefore you need not "worry" about the news that is released and have to make decision based on emotion. With this being said I think most of the people who react to news instead of prepare for it were the ones in buying today to drive the market up as much as it was. This is fine because in the end I think buying is the right thing to do but we could see a setback tomorrow.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I expect to see an early high and a late low tomorrow as enthusiasm expires over today's USDA report findings. I look for early resistance tonight at $4.06-.07 then all the way up to $4.13 (don't think we will get there) and support should be $4.03, $3.99 3/4 and $3.96 1/2 but I think the $4.00 area should hold pretty good support. ***IF MAY '09 OPENS ABOVE $4.06 TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING A MORE NEGATIVE TONE TO TOMORROW THAT WHAT I HAVE DISCUSSED.*** I don't think we will open above $4.06 but I wanted to point it out if it does so you know what to expect from the market.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - May '09 Electronic</b><br />
<b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $281.50, High - $296.40, Low - $281.00, Close - $295.30 Up $13.80</span></b><br />
<b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I said yesterday "</span><span style="font-family: arial;">I am looking for an early low and late high with support at $277.60 and $275.10 and resistance at $282.20 and $285.00. Looking for the USDA report to give us direction tomorrow but I believe we will see positive trade based on the USDA numbers. This thought is solely based on the way the SHORT TERM charts look to me as well as the expected weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index. The dollar thing is a big deal guys."</span><br />
<br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Meal didn't get down to my support levels from yesterday and it blew through my resistance levels but the charts were right with positive trade today as a result of the USDA numbers. The planting intention report only increased soybean acres by 324,000 acres when the trade was looking for approximately 3.9 million more acres than last year. It is still a good time to have a known risk strategy in place to prevent you from paying higher prices in meal, talk with your broker about a strategy that is right for you.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - the close on May '09 meal was a positive one today but like corn I think we may have gotten too excited to keep a strong rally like this going for two consecutive days. I'm looking for a steady to better open tonight only to find resistance at $296.40 then $298.70. Support should be around $293.20, $292.30 and $291.30. I am looking for an early high and a late low tomorrow in May '09 meal. </span><br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - June '09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $70.95, High - $72.725, Low - $70.675, Close - $72.40 Up $1.425</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term </span></b><b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">(6 months) </span></b><b><span style="font-family: arial;"> - Friendly</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Reviewing yesterday I said "</span><span style="font-family: arial;">as I mentioned above I will continue to look for signs in the market to make me look at adjusting my short positions in the market place. In an effort to find a patter for the next couple of weeks based on the market tendencies since the year 2000; it seems as if the risk is more to the upside than to the downside. I am looking for an early low and a late high tomorrow; cutout was a non-event today as it was up $.14. I look for support at $70.52 and $69.52 and resistance should be around $71.35, $71.575 and then $72.20."</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: arial;">The market held just above my $70.52 support number and traded .52 above my high end resistance number and closed above it for the day. The issue I have with the market doing this today is its quarter/month end and strange things can happen on days like today. I am not buying into today's trade action just yet, because there is no evidence of a stronger cash market and cutout dropped by $.99 today.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />
<span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I look for an early high and a late low tomorrow with resistance at $72.725 then $73.20 and support should be at $71.45 and $70.675. Cutout was down today which is in line with what the short-term charts show for tomorrow, a negative trade day. Tomorrow is the cycle low but it is more of a general area it isn't a signal to buy so as I said yesterday I will continue to look for signs in the market that suggest the move lower is over. </span><b><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></b></div><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><pre>NW_LS500 **Resent for correction to strap ons and offs and cutout**
Des Moines, IA Tue, Mar 31, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Monday's Close:
Fresh 1/4" trim loins 7.00 to
8.00 lower; butts 1.00-3.00 higher; sknd hams 20-27 lbs 2.00-4.00 lower; sdls
bellies 14-16 lbs 2.00 lower; lean trimmings weak to 4.00 lower. Trading
active, with mostly moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 137.37
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 9.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
03/31 146.4 56.69 70.72 62.55 39.80 97.72 38.37 75.39
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : -0.99</span> 1.39 0.85 -0.73 1.53 -5.00 -1.03
-----------------------------------------------------------------------</pre><pre></pre><pre>NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA Tue, Mar 31, 2009 USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News
National Direct Hog Price Comparison
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
: National : Iowa : Western : Eastern
: : Minnesota : Cornbelt : Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
<span style="background-color: yellow;">BARROWS & GILTS : .08 hgr : .34 hgr : .08 hgr : .21 lwr</span>
Negotiated : : : :
CARCASS BASIS : 45.25-60.00 : 46.00-60.00 : 45.25-60.00 : 45.50-56.08
185 lb Base Hog : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg
Plant Delivered : 56.46 : 57.45 : 57.51 : 54.64
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count : 25,072 : 13,267 : 15,886 : 9,186
==========================================================================
</pre><br />
<b style="font-family: arial;"> </b> </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-21591664162327037332009-03-30T15:43:00.002-05:002009-03-30T15:43:48.375-05:00Hog Comments - 03-30-09 - Hogs may be looking for a bottom.<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">CORN - May '09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.87 3/4, High - $3.89 1/2, Low - $3.76 3/4, Close - $3.86 1/4 Down $.00 3/4.</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term (6 months) - Bullish/Higher<br />
</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Today was interesting considering we have the USDA March planting intentions report due out tomorrow morning. May '09 corn was down $.05 in the overnight session then opened the day session made an early low and closed near its high for the day session. I was surprised to see the corn market as strong as it was with crude oil being down over $4.00/barrel today. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I made a comment on how weak the U.S. Dollar Index has been after the Government said they were going to buy toxic assets from the banks. Since my comments the dollar has risen and made near a 50% retracement of its most recent decline which is normal. I am still of the opinion the dollar is heading south which is obviously good for the commodities markets. I want to keep a bullish structure to any positions I have on for feed. As of right now I'm long futures with a $3.80-$3.60 put spread in place on the May '09 contract. The put strategy allows us to be long the market without getting clobbered if we are wrong.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - USDA report out tomorrow so that will trump any direction I have if there is a surprise. The trade is looking for corn acres to be around 86 million so anything less (85 or less in my opinion) will be positive to corn prices and I look for trade to give us an early low and a late high. Support in May '09 corn tomorrow should be $3.82, $3.81 and $3.76 3/4 while resistance should be $3.87 1/4, $3.89 1/2 then $3.92. I had a buy signal at $3.85 today with a risk management sell stop at $3.75 1/2. Market action today suggests a probable reversal to the upside tomorrow with buy stops above today's high's of $3.89 1/2.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - May '09 Electronic</b><br />
<b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $284.30, High - $285.50, Low - $277.70, Close - $281.50 Down $2.30</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term </span></b><b style="font-family: arial;">(6 months)</b><b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;"> - Bullish/Higher</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As you may have noticed I have added a my long term thoughts in black and white just below the market close on each commodity I talk about. I try to give a longer-term directional feel to the market but I may forget it sometimes and if you follow along with my comments my short-term commentary can easily be contrary to my long term feel. I am trying to make my thoughts more clear to you so please let me know if you have suggestions and thanks to those who have. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Today's low of $277.70 was within $.10 of the 62% retracement of the recent move higher. The May '09 contract needs to get back above $283.60 for a couple of days before we look to make another run toward $308.90. I have the same thoughts on meal as I do on corn, I think we will see an early low and a late high tomorrow but remember any surprises in from the USDA and all bets are off.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I am looking for an early low and late high with support at $277.60 and $275.10 and resistance at $282.20 and $285.00. Looking for the USDA report to give us direction tomorrow but I believe we will see positive trade based on the USDA numbers. This thought is solely based on the way the SHORT TERM charts look to me as well as the expected weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index. The dollar thing is a big deal guys.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - June '09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $70.60, High - $71.20, Low - $70.525, Close - $70.975 Down $.425</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">Thoughts - Long Term </span></b><b style="font-family: arial;">(6 months)</b><b><span style="font-family: arial;"> - Friendly</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The market was trading the Quarterly Hog & Pig report from Friday which was evidently mildly bearish according to today's trade. I am looking for a place to lighten my short position this week if the charts suggest we do so. I have been saying for awhile in my comments that I have a cycle low near the end of March which I still do. I will be looking for signs and signals that suggest a bottom and look to re-structure my short positions when I see these signs. Today is the first one; we opened the market below Friday's low and rallied off of the open. The day and potential signal started out okay but failed to close above the crucial Friday low so I will keep looking.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In doing my research it tells me that June futures move lower from the close of April 1st to the close of April 15th 44.5% of the time by an average of $2.86/cwt and up 55.5% of the time by an average of $3.23/cwt. I talk about June because I am no longer using April '09 as a hedge vehicle which makes sense as the June has dropped near $3.00/cwt more than April since the week of March 16th (from high to low of the spread).</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - as I mentioned above I will continue to look for signs in the market to make me look at adjusting my short positions in the market place. In an effort to find a patter for the next couple of weeks based on the market tendencies since the year 2000; it seems as if the risk is more to the upside than to the downside. I am looking for an early low and a late high tomorrow; cutout was a non-event today as it was up $.14. I look for support at $70.52 and $69.52 and resistance should be around $71.35, $71.575 and then $72.20.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><pre>NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA Mon, Mar 30, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Friday's Close: Fresh 1/4" trim loins not reported;
boston butts 2.00 higher in a light test; sknd hams 17-20 lbs 1.00 lower, 23-27 lbs
3.00 lower, 23-27 lbs 1.00 lower; sdls bellies 14-16 lbs 2.00 lower; lean trim steady to
1.00 lower. Trading slow, with light demand and mostly moderate offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 33.75
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 10.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
03/30 43.8 57.68 69.33 61.70 40.54 96.19 43.37 76.41
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : 0.14</span> 0.92 0.62 -0.03 -0.81 0.19 -1.00
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
</pre><pre> </pre><pre>NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA Mon, Mar 30, 2009 USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News
National Direct Hog Price Comparison
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
: National : Iowa : Western : Eastern
: : Minnesota : Cornbelt : Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
<span style="background-color: yellow;">BARROWS & GILTS : .08 hgr : .04 lwr : .15 hgr : .44 hgr</span>
Negotiated : : : :
CARCASS BASIS : 45.50-59.80 : 46.00-59.80 : 46.00-59.80 : 45.50-59.50
185 lb Base Hog : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg
Plant Delivered : 56.28 : 57.00 : 57.37 : 54.85
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count : 23,625 : 8,339 : 13,266 : 10,269
==========================================================================
</pre><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-73475570625812099962009-03-26T15:43:00.000-05:002009-03-26T15:43:38.223-05:00Hog Comments - 03-26-09 - I'm still negative the hog market for now.<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">It has been a week since my last post due to my schedule and illness. I will refer to my previous comments as a starting point. </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P> <b style="font-family: arial;">CORN - May '09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.86, High - $3.92, Low - $3.86, Close - $3.90 3/4 Up $.05</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As a review from my last post (03-16-09) I said "</span>The May '09 contract made it through the upside target of $3.92 and looked like it had a great shot at testing the $4.03 number I wrote about last week too but it didn't get the job done as it stalled out at $3.97 1/2. I am still of the opinion we could test $4.40 in the May '09 contract IF we get closes above $3.92 for a couple of days this week and especially on Friday. I have one thing I am watching right now and it is a potential sell signal at $3.89 on a stop order. If the order would be executed there should be a buy stop at $3.98 1/2 to manage risk in the position."</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>As I mentioned in the paragraph above, the May '09 contract needs to get back above $3.92 in my opinion and hold that level for a day or two before we have a valid shot of testing $4.40 in the May '09 contract. I am a longer-term bull for the corn market especially after the Government said they will buy $1 Trillion of toxic assets which killed the dollar last week. I believe we are going to see the corn (commodities) markets move more off of money flow than fundamentals. </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>From here on out I want to structure any position I have with a bullish tone for reasons that have nothing to do with fundamentals of the corn market. I think the market will once again be technically driven especially if the U.S. Dollar index continues its recent decline.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P> Bottom line - I expect corn to have an early high and a late low tomorrow. I expect Resistance to be $3.91 3/4 then $3.92 3/4 and support is projected at $3.89, $3.88 1/4 and $3.87 1/4. The $3.92 area has been like a magnet for the May '09 contract but hasn't moved very far in either direction. I am bullish corn long-term and will hold my feed coverage in place with known risk strategies but tomorrows action my provide enthusiasm early and then the market should weaken.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - May '09 Electronic</b><br />
<b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $294.30, High - $298.70, Low - $289.40, Close - $290.80 Down $3.50</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I will review my comments from my last post on March 16th, 2009; I said "</span><span style="font-family: arial;">My opinion hasn't changed much from a longer-term perspective and I believe ownership is needed in some form at these levels. I would still like to leave the downside open if possible which points to using options however do what is best for your operation. I am looking for downside pressure tomorrow with support at $284.10 and $282.70 with an ultimate target of $278.20 but I don't think we will get there tomorrow. Resistance should be at $290.10 and $291.60. I expect an early high and a late low but noting to get too excited about to the downside."</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">My short-term call of $278.20 was off last week as the market never did move that low, the lowest we got was $284.40 which was just above the first level of support from my comments. The May '09 meal contract filled a gap that was left on March 18th, 2009 at $290.80 which is exactly where we closed today. I am a longer-term bull in meal as a result of my U.S. Dollar index comments written in the corn commentary above.<br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - it looks like the May '09 meal contract is looking for an early low and a late high tomorrow, opposite of corn. I expect support to be $289.40, $286.70 and resistance at $294.10, $295.10 and finally $298.70. I don't think $298.70 is attainable tomorrow but it is still the next level of resistance according to my studies.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - June '09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $71.80, High - $72.45, Low - $71.40, Close - $71.775 Down $.95</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I will review my post from March 16th, 2009; I said "</span><span style="font-family: arial;">I am still looking for a run lower in the June '09 contract. $72.475 is a target that I believe we can touch at some point in the near future. Unless cash hogs start to move again it just adds to my negative bias that the chart have been showing for days. My cycle indicator has June '09 hogs trending lower until March 28th before finding a bottom. I do not follow my cycle indicator solely but it is a part of my decision making process. Support for June '09 tomorrow is $73.50, $73.10 and $72.47. Resistance should be $74.425, $74.67 and $75.37. I expect tomorrow to have an early high and a late low with $73.10 having a good chance of being tested."</span><b><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">The high on the 17th was $74.20 and the low was $73.22 so I was $.22 off on the resistance number and .12 off on the support number for trade on the 17th. The market moved higher before it went lower since my last comments but the bottom line is the market backed off like the charts said it should. I am still have a negative feel toward June '09 hogs for the time being but we have the Quarterly Hog & Pig report out at 2:00 p.m. CST tomorrow which could switch directions with a major surprise however I don't see it. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><P>$71.95 is a key number for me in June '09 hogs, if we close below it again tomorrow then I look for a test of $69.52 in the June contract however the Pig Report could be a wild card event. If the market gaps lower tomorrow below $71.40 and then trades back above $71.40 it would signal a buy on the candlestick charts at $71.65 on a buy stop only. If the buy stop it filled then a risk management sell stop should be place $.25 below the most recent low for the day. I will not buy the hog market based on this signal, I need to see more than this potential signal. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> <br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;"> Bottom line - I am looking for an early low in June '09 hogs tomorrow and then strengthen as the day progresses. The cycle indicator still has the market moving lower into the first part of next week before finding support. Support for tomorrow is $71.40, $70.85 then all the way down to $69.52 but I don't think we get there. Resistance for tomorrow should be $72.10, $72.32 and $72.52.<br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><P><pre>NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA Thu, Mar 26, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Wednesday's Close: Fresh loins unevenly steady;
butts steady; sknd hams 2.00-3.00 lower; sdls bellies 14-16 lbs 2.00 lower; lean
trimmings weak to 4.00 lower. Trading moderate, with light to moderate demand
and mostly moderate offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 109.0
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 26.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
03/26 135.0 57.28 68.35 58.86 41.00 96.99 43.26 77.41
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : -0.58</span> 0.33 2.02 2.16 1.98 -2.15 -4.39
-----------------------------------------------------------------------</pre><pre></pre><pre>NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA Thu, Mar 26, 2009 USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News
National Direct Hog Price Comparison
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
: National : Iowa : Western : Eastern
: : Minnesota : Cornbelt : Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
<span style="background-color: yellow;">BARROWS & GILTS : .25 hgr : .27 hgr : .39 hgr : .07 hgr</span>
Negotiated : : : :
CARCASS BASIS : 45.50-58.11 : 46.00-58.11 : 46.00-58.11 : 45.50-55.41
185 lb Base Hog : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg
Plant Delivered : 55.64 : 56.48 : 56.54 : 53.71
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count : 26,173 : 11,986 : 17,820 : 7,968
==========================================================================
</pre><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-1940724509708954232009-03-16T18:45:00.000-05:002009-03-16T18:45:58.528-05:00Hog Comments - 03-16-09 - I'm still bearish hogs...<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">CORN - May '09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.84 1/2, High - $3.97 1/2, Low - $3.81 1/2, Close - $3.91 1/2 Up $.03</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Reviewing my comments from my last post on Thursday the 12th of March, I said "</span>I have been saying for quite some time that I am not a bear at these levels but now we have made some major strides to begin to confirm this thought. I wanted to see the market get above $3.68 before I got excited about a major rally and we obviously closed well above that today. IF YOU DO NOT HAVE FEED CORN PROTECTION IN PLACE I WOULD AT MINIMUM BUY SOME OUT OF THE MONEY CALL OPTIONS!!! We have finally broken our downtrend line that descends from our January '09 high and we have closed above it for the fifth consecutive day. If we manage to close May '09 corn above $3.92 tomorrow or by next Friday then my next target is $4.40 May '09 corn."</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>The May '09 contract made it through the upside target of $3.92 and looked like it had a great shot at testing the $4.03 number I wrote about last week too but it didn't get the job done as it stalled out at $3.97 1/2. I am still of the opinion we could test $4.40 in the May '09 contract IF we get closes above $3.92 for a couple of days this week and especially on Friday. I have one thing I am watching right now and it is a potential sell signal at $3.89 on a stop order. If the order would be executed there should be a buy stop at $3.98 1/2 to manage risk in the position. </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P> Bottom line - I see the signal at $3.89 as a good possibility which could give us a chance to move lower and give back some of this move. I do not think the market is done I just believe we will see a pull back. The overnight just opened as I write this and the signal was good at $3.89 which is where we opened the session. If $3.97 1/2 is breached then the signal has failed and it is onward and upward. I am expecting a test of $3.87 1/2 to $3.81 1/2 tomorrow with the upside targets at $3.97 1/2 but I believe we will be lower tomorrow. I expect an early high and late low for tomorrow's trade.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - May '09 Electronic</b><br />
<b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $273.70, High - $290.00, Low - $272.50, Close - $288.40 Up $11.70</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As a review from Thursday of last week I said "</span><span style="font-family: arial;">Not much different from the corn, the market was close to my first support level of $268.20 but above my resistance level by $3.50. I missed exiting my short meal futures yesterday by $.10 which made for a tough pill to swallow today when I exited for a profit of around $.30 on the position. I exited because I need upside coverage for meal and I only sold the futures so I wouldn't lose all of the equity in my $280.00 April call option. I made a mistake, I said yesterday the April call expires next Friday but it is the following Friday the 27th. Like corn, IF YOU DON'T HAVE MEAL COVERAGE IN PLACE WITH A KNOWN RISK STRATEGY I WOULD STRONGLY SUGGEST AT MINIMUM BUYING AN OUT OF THE MONEY CALL but talk with your broker to make sure it is right for your operation."</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - My opinion hasn't changed much from a longer-term perspective and I believe ownership is needed in some form at these levels. I would still like to leave the downside open if possible which points to using options however do what is best for your operation. I am looking for downside pressure tomorrow with support at $284.10 and $282.70 with an ultimate target of $278.20 but I don't think we will get there tomorrow. Resistance should be at $290.10 and $291.60. I expect an early high and a late low but noting to get too excited about to the downside.<br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - June '09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $73.95, High - $74.60, Low - $73.65, Close - $74.075 Down $.15</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As a review from last Thursday I said "</span><span style="font-family: arial;">I am still negative the hog market however I did add a call strategy to my short futures today because as I have said before, what I think and what the market does are two very different things! I have upside in the June '09 contract up to $80.00 before I need to adjust my position. I will stay with my negative bias toward the market until we close above $74.30 for at least two days and have sold trade action above it. The weekly chart is showing signs of caution if you were long the market but I need to see tomorrow's close to be sure and it is a caution sign not a sell signal. "</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">My opinion has NOT changed in June '09 hogs. As mentioned in the paragraph above I will remain negative to the hog market until we get a close above $74.30 in the June '09 contract for at least two days, it has yet to happen. Friday's trade action on the chart looked very negative to me, however, I expected follow through to the downside today which we got very little of. The cash market isn't in the best of shape but packer margins have since come around with last week's run in cutout and general weakness in cash. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I am still looking for a run lower in the June '09 contract. $72.475 is a target that I believe we can touch at some point in the near future. Unless cash hogs start to move again it just adds to my negative bias that the chart have been showing for days. My cycle indicator has June '09 hogs trending lower until March 28th before finding a bottom. I do not follow my cycle indicator solely but it is a part of my decision making process. Support for June '09 tomorrow is $73.50, $73.10 and $72.47. Resistance should be $74.425, $74.67 and $75.37. I expect tomorrow to have an early high and a late low with $73.10 having a good chance of being tested.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> <br />
</span></div><pre>NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA Mon, Mar 16, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Friday's Close: Fresh bone-in loins steady;
butts steady to 1.00 lower; sknd hams 20-23 lbs 2.00 lower, 23-27 lbs unevenly
steady; sdls bellies not established; lean trimmings 2.00 higher. Trading slow,
with light to moderate demand and offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 40.00
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 9.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
03/16 49.0 59.51 74.39 62.83 36.27 96.65 43.98 81.63
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : -0.04</span> -0.74 -0.91 1.99 -0.03 0.04 0.10 </pre><pre>-----------------------------------------------------------------------
</pre><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b face="arial"></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b face="arial"></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></b> </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><pre>NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA Mon, Mar 16, 2009 USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News
National Direct Hog Price Comparison
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
: National : Iowa : Western : Eastern
: : Minnesota : Cornbelt : Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
<span style="background-color: yellow;">BARROWS & GILTS : 1.58 lwr : 2.53 lwr : 2.38 lwr : .61 lwr</span>
Negotiated : : : :
CARCASS BASIS : 44.75-58.11 : 47.25-57.00 : 44.75-57.00 : 46.00-58.11
185 lb Base Hog : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg
Plant Delivered : 55.65 : 55.24 : 55.41 : 55.97
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count : 17,397 : 5,884 : 9,651 : 7,297
==========================================================================
</pre><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-56403369657172480452009-03-12T15:24:00.000-05:002009-03-12T15:24:28.665-05:00Hog Comments - 03-12-09 - Third straight day of higher cutout!<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">CORN - May '09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.64, High - $3.86 3/4, Low - $3.62 3/4, Close - $3.85 1/4 Up $.20 3/4<br />
</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As a review from yesterday I said "The May '09 futures settled at $3.64 1/2 which is 1/4 cent above the 50% retracement level from our most recent low to our most recent high. This area should provide support and if it doesn't we should see $3.59 1/2, $3.58 and $3.55 1/2. I am looking for more weakness in the overnight and early day session tomorrow. I expect a test of $3.59 1/2 at some point between tonight and tomorrow's close. Support for May '09 corn is $3.62, $3.59 1/2 and $3.58. Resistance is $3.66 3/4, $369 1/4 and $3.71 1/2. I expect an early low and a late high tomorrow.</span>" </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>We didn't see a test of the $3.59 1/2 area like I thought we would but we did hold my first level of support at $3.62. Once again the market blew through my resistance levels with no problems at all but the market action was exactly what I thought it would be an early low and a late high. I purchased corn today at $3.79 which is higher than I would have liked but discipline said I needed to. I also moved my put options from $3.60 to $3.80 to protect the downside risk of my long futures positions so now I have near a full position on in feed corn to protect me to the upside if the market continues its climb. Rumor today is that a large, well followed firm will decrease its corn acreage estimate and therefore got the market going to the upside along with favorable outside market conditions. </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>I have been saying for quite some time that I am not a bear at these levels but now we have made some major strides to begin to confirm this thought. I wanted to see the market get above $3.68 before I got excited about a major rally and we obviously closed well above that today. IF YOU DO NOT HAVE FEED CORN PROTECTION IN PLACE I WOULD AT MINIMUM BUY SOME OUT OF THE MONEY CALL OPTIONS!!! We have finally broken our downtrend line that descends from our January '09 high and we have closed above it for the fifth consecutive day. If we manage to close May '09 corn above $3.92 tomorrow or by next Friday then my next target is $4.40 May '09 corn.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>Bottom line - Huh, where do I start? If we open BELOW $3.86 3/4 tonight it will be a good open for follow through to the upside but if we open above that then there would be a sell signal at $3.86 that might be attractive based on the reasons why the market rallied. Rumors that corn acres will decrease. Again, I am not bearish here but the market rallied off of rumors so those that are in are already in and will probably sell to those who get in late tomorrow if the rumor is true. My cycles tell me to look for an early high and a late low tomorrow (short-term) but market action looks strong. I will go with follow through to the upside tomorrow ONLY if we open below $3.86 3/4 tonight. SUPPORT should be $3.81, $3.78 then $3.75 and RESISTANCE should be $3.92, $4.03 then $4.08 1/2. I think $3.92 is a possibility for tomorrow but I believe our highs will be in early in the day.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - May '09 Electronic</b><br />
<b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $270.00, High - $276.40, Low - $268.60, Close - $276.50 Up $7.00</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Reviewing yesterday I said "</span><span style="font-family: arial;">I am looking for continued weakness in May '09 meal tonight/tomorrow but I think we will see an early low and late high. We are having a tough time closing above $271.00 to get anything going to the upside. Support for May '09 meal should be $268.20, $267.20 and then $265.10. Resistance should be $271.20, $272.10 and then $273.00. I expect early lows and late highs tomorrow.</span><span style="font-family: arial;">"</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><P></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Not much different from the corn, the market was close to my first support level of $268.20 but above my resistance level by $3.50. I missed exiting my short meal futures yesterday by $.10 which made for a tough pill to swallow today when I exited for a profit of around $.30 on the position. I exited because I need upside coverage for meal and I only sold the futures so I wouldn't lose all of the equity in my $280.00 April call option. I made a mistake, I said yesterday the April call expires next Friday but it is the following Friday the 27th. Like corn, IF YOU DON'T HAVE MEAL COVERAGE IN PLACE WITH A KNOWN RISK STRATEGY I WOULD STRONGLY SUGGEST AT MINIMUM BUYING AN OUT OF THE MONEY CALL but talk with your broker to make sure it is right for your operation. <br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - We close above the $270.70 number I have talked about for awhile now so our next number to get to is $281.20 and if we can sustain trade above this number then could search out $325.30 again. There are a lot of what ifs in that last sentence but that is how I see it developing. Similar to corn the market needs to open up lower tonight to prevent a sell signal from forming. If the May '09 meal opens higher (the higher the more bearish) tonight then there were be a sell signal at $276.00 on a stop with a risk management buy stop above the most current high to exit the trade if the signal is false. I like the way we closed but I don't like that it was at the very high. I am expecting an early high tomorrow and late low unless we get a big fundamental surprise. SUPPORT should be $$274.40, $272.40 then $268.20 and RESISTANCE should be $277.30, $281.20 then $283.90. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - June '09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $72.35, High - $73.90, Low - $72.25, Close - $73.75 Up $1.35</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Reviewing yesterday I said "</span><span style="font-family: arial;">with packer margins still in the red I continue to have a negative bias toward the market because today's action didn't tell me much from a chart perspective. We closed back above the $71.90 number I spoke of yesterday so we need to continue to watch this level to give us further direction. Cutout was up $.98 today and it was up $.82 yesterday so we've had back to back days of higher cutout numbers which will be psychologically supportive to the market. I look for early strength in the market based off of tonight's cutout number but I believe we will have early highs and late lows. Support for June '09 should be $72.175, $71.70 then $71.47. Resistance should be $72.675 then $73.25</span><span style="font-family: arial;">. I am still not friendly hogs at these levels and I have a cycle high being put in tomorrow and then a lower trend into approximately March 27th. Again I'm looking for early highs and late lows tomorrow."</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">I am eating my words today but I have to be honest with myself as well as you the reader and review what took place. I thought we would see early highs and late lows however it was pretty much the opposite today. I knew the market would be supported today because of two consecutive days of strength in cutout but I didn't anticipate the market to hold firm as long as it did. I will say that now that the Goldman roll is complete we should get back to a functional market. I have found that during the periods of this roll the market does strange things because they need to roll their long positions from the front month to the next and they are very good at getting this done.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">I am still negative the hog market however I did add a call strategy to my short futures today because as I have said before, what I think and what the market does are two very different things! I have upside in the June '09 contract up to $80.00 before I need to adjust my position. I will stay with my negative bias toward the market until we close above $74.30 for at least two days and have sold trade action above it. The weekly chart is showing signs of caution if you were long the market but I need to see tomorrow's close to be sure and it is a caution sign not a sell signal. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I am looking for an early high and a late low in June '09 tomorrow. On an hourly chart I have a sell signal at $73.90 STOP IF the market trades higher than that and comes back down through this level, the risk management buy stop would be $.25 above the current high if filled. SUPPORT should be $73.27, $73.07 then $72.85 and RESISTANCE should be $73.90, $74.15-30 then </span><span style="font-family: arial;">$74.85. I expect an early high and late low tomorrow.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">I wrote my comments prior to seeing cutout and cash but when the information was released from the USDA the globex futures didn't do much. Hmmmmm what do they have up their sleeve? Did we see all the buying today and the insiders will sell it tomorrow based off of the big cutout number? I smell something here, I will leave my comments as is. <br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span><b><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></b></div><P><pre>NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA Thu, Mar 12, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Wednesday's Close: Fresh 1/4" tirm loins 1.00
higher; butts steady to 1.00 lower; sknd hams 23-27 lbs steady to 1.00 higher,
other weights not tested; sdls bellies 14-16 lbs not tested, other weights firm;
lean trimmings 3.00 higher. Trading slow, with light to moderate demand and
mostly light offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 57.13
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 6.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
03/12 63.1 58.70 74.36 64.12 34.10 96.68 44.44 76.65
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : 1.62</span> 0.68 0.40 1.78 -0.32 4.36 0.97
-----------------------------------------------------------------------</pre><pre></pre><pre>NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA Thu, Mar 12, 2009 USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News
National Direct Hog Price Comparison
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
: National : Iowa : Western : Eastern
: : Minnesota : Cornbelt : Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
<span style="background-color: yellow;">BARROWS & GILTS : .05 lwr : .87 hgr : .59 hgr : 2.07 lwr</span>
Negotiated : : : :
CARCASS BASIS : 45.50-62.00 : 47.00-62.00 : 46.00-62.00 : 45.50-60.14
185 lb Base Hog : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg
Plant Delivered : 59.20 : 60.80 : 60.71 : 55.99
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count : 24,382 : 11,690 : 16,605 : 7,777
==========================================================================
</pre><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-12344493900108232412009-03-11T15:53:00.000-05:002009-03-11T15:53:41.974-05:00Hog Comments - 03-11-09 - Hogs respond to yesterday's higher cutout.<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">CORN - May '09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.74 1/2, High - $3.81, Low - $3.62, Close - $3.64 1/2 Down $.11</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Reviewing yesterday's comments I said "</span><span style="font-family: arial;">I am still looking for a place to buy May '09 corn against $3.60 put options as the market didn't get to my target levels over the past couple of days. We have now traded substantially above the downtrend line in the May '09 contract and I look for a close above $3.68 for a couple of days before getting extremely excited about a major rally. Support for tomorrow is $3.74 $3.71 3/4, $3.69 and resistance should be $3.81 1/4 and then $3.84. The market created a sell signal at $3.79 1/2 in the May '09 contract today with a protective buy stop at $3.85."</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">As stated above the $3.79 1/2 sell signal in May '09 corn was quiet good. I have been looking to purchase futures against $3.60 puts for the last several sessions but we haven't gotten to an area where I am comfortable putting them on. My resistance number at $3.81 1/4 for today was good within a 1/4 cent but I was off on my support levels. I had orders in at $3.64 this morning but then moved them down to $3.58 to see if we could touch it but I really wanted to see the market close today before getting long futures. It is still my intent to get ownership in the May '09 contract but I plan to buy below today's closing price.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - The May '09 futures settled at $3.64 1/2 which is 1/4 cent above the 50% retracement level from our most recent low to our most recent high. This area should provide support and if it doesn't we should see $3.59 1/2, $3.58 and $3.55 1/2. I am looking for more weakness in the overnight and early day session tomorrow. I expect a test of $3.59 1/2 at some point between tonight and tomorrow's close. Support for May '09 corn is $3.62, $3.59 1/2 and $3.58. Resistance is $3.66 3/4, $369 1/4 and $3.71 1/2. I expect an early low and a late high tomorrow.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - May '09 Electronic</b><br />
<b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $271.60, High - $276.00, Low - $268.20, Close - $269.50 Down $1.80</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Reviewing yesterday's comments I said "</span><span style="font-family: arial;">I am looking for tonight/tomorrow's trade to open on weaker tone and test support at $269.20 to $268.00 before finding support. As I said above we need to see the market continue to close above $270.50 before I think we can make a bigger move higher. If you don't have upside protection in place I would make sure you visit with someone who can help you with this need. Support for tomorrow is $269.20, $268.00 then $264.40 and resistance is $272.30 and $273.90."</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Support for May '09 meal was $.20 away from my lowest support level from yesterday and the resistance point was under estimated by $2.10. I sold futures at $274.40 against my $280.00 call options today because they expire on Friday of next week. My intent was to protect the equity I have in this call option so it doesn't dwindle into next week. Now the call was out of the money so the equity was all time value however I didn't like the way the market looked therefore I sold the futures and missed taking profit by $.10 today as I had an order to exit the short futures at $268.10.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I am looking for continued weakness in May '09 meal tonight/tomorrow but I think we will see an early low and late high. We are having a tough time closing above $271.00 to get anything going to the upside. Support for May '09 meal should be $268.20, $267.20 and then $265.10. Resistance should be $271.20, $272.10 and then $273.00. I expect early lows and late highs tomorrow.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - June '09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $72.05, High - $72.65, Low - $71.70, Close - $72.40 Up $.70</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As a review, yesterday I said "</span><span style="font-family: arial;">I am looking for continued downside tomorrow with pressure more than likely mounting. We closed below my support area of $71.90 today and if we continue to close below it we should test $69.525 in short order. If we test and close below $69.52 then ouch, another leg lower is possible. Support for tomorrow is $71.35 then $69.525 and resistance is $72.425 then $72.62 then today's high of $73.25. I expect a weak day of trade tomorrow with the majority of negativity coming early in the day as the charts look like we could find support later in the session. "</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">June '09 hogs didn't get to my support number of $71.35 today but it did reach my second resistance point of $72.62 ($72.67 was the high) which I sold against. I added to my short position today as I see this bounce as a gift. My work from 2000 to 2008 shows that June futures decline 67% of the time from March 15th to April 1st on average of $2.83 cwt and the other 33% of the time they increase on average of $3.02 cwt. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - with packer margins still in the red I continue to have a negative bias toward the market because today's action didn't tell me much from a chart perspective. We closed back above the $71.90 number I spoke of yesterday so we need to continue to watch this level to give us further direction. Cutout was up $.98 today and it was up $.82 yesterday so we've had back to back days of higher cutout numbers which will be psychologically supportive to the market. I look for early strength in the market based off of tonight's cutout number but I believe we will have early highs and late lows. Support for June '09 should be $72.175, $71.70 then $71.47. Resistance should be $72.675 then $73.25</span><span style="font-family: arial;">. I am still not friendly hogs at these levels and I have a cycle high being put in tomorrow and then a lower trend into approximately March 27th. Again I'm looking for early highs and late lows tomorrow.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><P><pre>NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA Wed, Mar 11, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Tuesday's Close: Fresh bone-in loins mostly
steady; butts steady to 1.00 higher; sknd hams 17-20 lbs steady, 20-23 lbs weak,
23-27 lbs not tested; sdls bellies 14-16 lbs 2.00 higher; lean trimmings not
tested. Trading slow, with light to mostly moderate demand and light to
moderate offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 74.38
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 4.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
03/11 78.4 57.08 73.68 63.71 32.32 97.00 40.07 75.68
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : 0.98 </span> 1.77 0.02 1.33 0.08 0.82 1.10
-----------------------------------------------------------------------</pre><pre></pre><pre>USDA cash reports were delayed today due to packer submission problems so</pre><pre>please use the link below to check for the updated cash prices.</pre><pre><span style="font-family: arial;"></span>
<span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="http://marketnews.usda.gov/gear/browseby/txt/NW_LS831.TXT">USDA Hog Price Comparison</a></span></pre><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"></span> </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-76539053575557930132009-03-10T14:19:00.000-05:002009-03-10T14:19:40.318-05:00Hog Comments - 03-10-09 - Price weakness continues in hogs.<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">CORN - May '09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.64 1/2, High - $3.84, Low - $3.64 1/4, Close - $3.75 1/2 Up $.10</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I said yesterday "</span><span style="font-family: arial;">I am looking for May '09 corn to open unchanged to lower tonight based on follow through from the close today. I see support at $3.64, $3.62 1/2 and then $3.58, I see resistance at $3.67 then $3.70. I am expecting early follow through weakness tonight and MAYBE tomorrow morning but I am looking for an early low and a late high tomorrow. We need a close above $3.68 to gain more strength for a run at the upside but for now I believe selling will surface just below today's low."</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">My first level support point was almost right on today but I was only off on resistance by $.14! I expected to see a small correction before we made a move like we had today but obviously that wasn't the case. The stock market helped get things going this morning because Citibank stated it had a profitable first two months of 2009 which is the best they've had since the third quarter of 2007; Wells Fargo made a similar comment last Friday. This got stocks moving higher in pre-market and then the Government stated they would bring back the "up tick rule" in the stock market which sent the Dow Jones above 300 points higher. They also made a comment that they will review mark to market accounting.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I am still looking for a place to buy May '09 corn against $3.60 put options as the market didn't get to my target levels over the past couple of days. We have now traded substantially above the downtrend line in the May '09 contract and I look for a close above $3.68 for a couple of days before getting extremely excited about a major rally. Support for tomorrow is $3.74 $3.71 3/4, $3.69 and resistance should be $3.81 1/4 and then $3.84. The market created a sell signal at $3.79 1/2 in the May '09 contract today with a protective buy stop at $3.85. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - May '09 Electronic</b><br />
<b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $265.00, High - $273.90, Low - $264.40, Close - $271.30 Up $6.30</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Reviewing yesterday's comments I said "</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> I am looking for an early low and late high tomorrow with support at $264.50 and $263.10 and resistance to be $267.50 and $270.50. I am still in the camp of soybean meal looking for a bottom therefore I have call options in place to give us upside protection in the event of a rally. I want upside protection at these levels but I want known risk thus the use of options."</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">I was very close with my first level of support in May '09 meal but like corn I was off on my resistance number but not near as bad as I was in corn. I have been saying I am looking for the market to bottom in here but we have failed to get any type of rally going that is sustainable. Today we closed above a key level of resistance of $270.50 which is the 62% retracement level back to the contract low. A close above this level looks positive but we need more than just one, I would like to see follow through to the upside tomorrow and another close above $270.50 before I get very excited about rally attempts.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I am looking for tonight/tomorrow's trade to open on weaker tone and test support at $269.20 to $268.00 before finding support. As I said above we need to see the market continue to close above $270.50 before I think we can make a bigger move higher. If you don't have upside protection in place I would make sure you visit with someone who can help you with this need. Support for tomorrow is $269.20, $268.00 then $264.40 and resistance is $272.30 and $273.90. </span><b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"></span><b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span> </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - June '09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $73.00, High - $73.25, Low - $71.60, Close - $71.70 Down $1.50</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As a review from yesterday I said "</span><span style="font-family: arial;">I am looking for the June '09 hogs to test $72.37 with an ultimate test of $71.90. If we close below $71.90 for a couple of days then I would expect a test of $71.30 to $69.55 area. I see June '09 trading lower tomorrow in the early stages of the day and possibly finding support later in the session however I think any rally we have tomorrow will be sold by professional traders. I don't like the market here unless we start to see big moves to the upside in the cutout numbers. Support for tomorrow is $72.37 and $71.90 where resistance is at $73.60, $73.77 and then $74.30 although I don't think it is likely we will see the topside of resistance tomorrow. Today looked pretty ugly on the charts (in my opinion).</span><span style="font-family: arial;">"</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Not much has changed from what I said yesterday or late last week, I am not short-term friendly June '09 hogs at these prices until something significant changes with cutout. Packer margins are still in the red and it business principles would suggest you can't slaughter hogs at a loss for an extended period of time, something has to give. Again, my decisions are based on chart action with followed by an awareness of fundamental information so I am more concerned with the way the chart looks than anything.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I am looking for continued downside tomorrow with pressure more than likely mounting. We closed below my support area of $71.90 today and if we continue to close below it we should test $69.525 in short order. If we test and close below $69.52 then ouch, another leg lower is possible. Support for tomorrow is $71.35 then $69.525 and resistance is $72.425 then $72.62 then today's high of $73.25. I expect a weak day of trade tomorrow with the majority of negativity coming early in the day as the charts look like we could find support later in the session. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">I had to post these comments prior to the cash and cutout information release by the USDA this afternoon, my apologies. Below are the links to the USDA site to get this information.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_ls500.txt">Pork Cutout</a> </span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="http://marketnews.usda.gov/gear/browseby/txt/NW_LS831.TXT">USDA Hog Price Comparison</a> <br />
</span><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><b><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></b> </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-30251165704450375672009-03-09T14:00:00.000-05:002009-03-09T14:00:18.696-05:00Hog Comments - 03-09-09 Hogs slide after opening higher.<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">CORN - May '09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.65 3/4, High - $3.70, Low - $3.64 3/4, Close - $3.65 1/2 Up $.04<br />
</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Due to time constraints today my comments will be short and sweet but the balance of the week looks good for posting comments. I don't have anything to review from Friday because I didn't have any comments therefore I will start from scratch today. There has been small volume in May '09 corn over the last few sessions which leads me to believe there isn't much behind this little rally we are getting. I am not suggesting you sell everything in sight all I mean is I think we could see another correction lower prior to making new highs above $3.80 1/2. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">I exited long futures last week on Wednesday I believe and I am look for a place to re-own futures against my long $3.60 April puts to turn them into calls. I am not a big fan of flat out ownership of corn at this point until I see better indications of a bottom from the chart. We are still using the downtrend line from the January high as resistance. We need to close above that level ($3.68) for a few days for me to get excited about an upside move.</span> </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I am looking for May '09 corn to open unchanged to lower tonight based on follow through from the close today. I see support at $3.64, $3.62 1/2 and then $3.58, I see resistance at $3.67 then $3.70. I am expecting early follow through weakness tonight and MAYBE tomorrow morning but I am looking for an early low and a late high tomorrow. We need a close above $3.68 to gain more strength for a run at the upside but for now I believe selling will surface just below today's low.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - May '09 Electronic</b><br />
<b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $267.70, High - $270.50, Low - $264.80, Close - $265.00 Down $.30</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">May '09 meal had a relatively quiet day and closing near unchanged. Looking at the intra-day charts I feel we could see unchanged to lower tonight as the market opens. I believe we will test $264.50 and POSSIBLY $263.10 before finding support. I look for May '09 meal to have an early low and a late high during tomorrow's trade similar to corn.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I am looking for an early low and late high tomorrow with support at $264.50 and $263.10 and resistance to be $267.50 and $270.50. I am still in the camp of soybean meal looking for a bottom therefore I have call options in place to give us upside protection in the event of a rally. I want upside protection at these levels but I want known risk thus the use of options.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - June '09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $73.15, High - $74.30, Low - $72.95, Close - $73.20 Down $.525</span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">June '09 hogs moved higher right after the open of trade today. I sold hogs on Wednesday or Thursday of last week around $73.05 for a hedge based on the way the market looks and feels at this point. I am not ruling out the fact that we can't move higher at some point but I think we need a setback first. The packer margin is awfully red so something needs to happen, either cash come down or cutout comes up. So far the cutout isn't doing its part to solve the margin problem. The assumptions I make about packer margins are based on information I have and is not from the packers themselves therefore I can't guarantee its accuracy.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">I am looking for continued weakness tomorrow based on how the charts look. The last commentary I had last week said I was looking for hogs to have a downside reversal on Thursday which was on target in the morning but closed higher on the day. I am standing by my comments and continue to believe we should see a setback in the June '09 hogs before going much higher. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I am looking for the June '09 hogs to test $72.37 with an ultimate test of $71.90. If we close below $71.90 for a couple of days then I would expect a test of $71.30 to $69.55 area. I see June '09 trading lower tomorrow in the early stages of the day and possibly finding support later in the session however I think any rally we have tomorrow will be sold by professional traders. I don't like the market here unless we start to see big moves to the upside in the cutout numbers. Support for tomorrow is $72.37 and $71.90 where resistance is at $73.60, $73.77 and then $74.30 although I don't think it is likely we will see the topside of resistance tomorrow. Today looked pretty ugly on the charts (in my opinion).</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I had to post these comments prior to the cash and cutout information release by the USDA this afternoon, my apologies. Below are the links to the USDA site to get this information.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_ls500.txt">Pork Cutout</a> </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="http://marketnews.usda.gov/gear/browseby/txt/NW_LS831.TXT">USDA Hog Price Comparison</a> </span><b><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></b><span style="font-family: arial;"></span><b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-74817029869194888502009-03-04T15:39:00.009-06:002009-03-04T16:37:34.203-06:00Hog Comments - 03-04-09 - Looking for a downside reversal in hogs tomorrow.<b style="font-family: arial;">CORN - May '09 Electronic<br />Open - $3.49, High - $3.65, Low - $3.47, Close - $3.63 1/2 Up $.13<br /></b><span style="font-family: arial;">Reviewing what I said yesterday - "I feel like we should continue to try and move higher tomorrow as we got very little of that accomplished today. I see today's high of $3.54 1/4 as a target area for tomorrow and then $3.58 in the May '09 contract. Overall I think we could be mixed tomorrow with the upside resistance areas being targets. Tomorrow's support is $3.48 1/4, $3.47 1/4 then $3.44 1/2. Tomorrow's resistance is $3.54 1/4 and then $3.57 1/4. I look for mixed to better trade tomorrow."</span><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /></b><span style="font-family: arial;">I was off by $.07 cents on the resistance side of the market (upside) and within a 1/4 cent of my mid-range support level from yesterday. I felt as though the market would try a move higher but this one surprised me today. I took some small profits on the long futures I have on against my $3.60 puts today because I see $3.66 1/2 as resistance in the May '09 contract. I am looking to re-establish my long position below the market if I can but I have no problem getting back in the market doesn't respect what the charts say it should do. <br /><br />Bottom line - I expect an early high tonight with the market possibly testing $3.66 1/2 to $3.67 1/2 and then calling it a day. I have a sell signal SETUP at $3.67 1/2 if we move above this level and then come back down through it. I would have a sell stop at $3.67 with a protective buy stop $.01 above the most recent high. I am looking for an ultimate test of $3.56 at some point but I am not sure we will have enough pressure to get there tonight/tomorrow. We should test support of $3.60 1/2 to $3.59 1/2 and then down to $3.56 which is my target before the market makes any bigger moves up at this point. I am still not bearish longer-term but I'm looking for a correction tomorrow.</span><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><br /></b><b style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - May '09 Electronic</b><br /> <b face="arial"><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $263.70, High - $273.00, Low - $262.40, Close - $267.30 Up $2.60<br /></span></b><span style="font-family: arial;">I said yesterday "The market looks like we should have follow through to the upside tomorrow based on the way we traded today. I see support at $262.90, $262.20 and then $260.00 if we get moving to the downside. Resistance should be around $263.90 and then $265.70. One note to point out is if the May contract moves above $265.70 and then comes back down through it will trigger a sell signal at $265.20 on a stop. If the sold at $265.20 then a risk management buy stop order should be placed $1.00 above the most recent high. This is an observation not a re<span style="font-family: arial;">commendation."</span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br />Bottom line - I was within range on the support side of the May '09 meal market today but not close on the resistance side as it went through what I thought would stop the market by $7.30! I am looking for market action to be similar to corn, open better and then find early resistance. I expect May '09 corn to test support of $265.00 and then to $260.00 and resistance to be $269.50, $270.30 and then $273.10 which was today's high. I still feel like we are looking for a bottom in this area and I do have my needs covered with $280.00 call options in May '09.<br /><br /><br /></span><b style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - April '09 GLOBEX</b><br /> <b><span style="font-family: arial;">Open - $61.00, High - $62.80, Low - $60.775, Close - $62.325 Up $1.475<br /></span></b><span style="font-family: arial;">Reviewing yesterday's comments I said<span style="font-family: arial;"> "</span>We got a market close back above the $60.45 level which will open the door to a longer-term target of $64.00 provided the April '09 contract continues to close above $60.45. I am looking for mixed markets tomorrow but with a friendly feel, I can see both directions tomorrow. April '09 support is $60.65, 60.32 and resistance is 60.975, $61.32 then up to $64.00 (outside of limit range but is the next resistance level). June '09 support is $71.35, $71.125 and resistance is $72.12, $72.45 then $72.75."<br /><br />I pretty much wrong across the board on this one today, I got close on the support levels but the market blew through all of my resistance points which is fine by me. I had a short-term change of heart today as I sold the June '09 contract. I had/have a sell signal at $72.75 AND at $73.50 on a stop order and if that order is filled (the $73.50 would be) then the protective risk management buy stop would be around $73.85. I see some things building on the chart that doesn't look that good. The signal I had to buy at $70.60ish that started the rally is the same signal I have on the sell side today/tomorrow.<br /><br />Bottom line - The cash market was stronger again today but there are not a lot of packers in the market place bidding for hogs and cutout was down so the packers took a double whammy in margin today. I haven't been this aggressive of a seller in a while but things are beginning to line up with charts and fundamentals. I am still not a bear longer-term but for now I want to be short and if I am wrong I will exit my positions and look to sell higher. June '09 support is $72.52, $72.25 and $71.35 which I believe is very possible. June resistance is $73.12, $73.75 and then $74.15 which I think is highly unlikely.<br /><br /></span><pre>NW_LS500<br />Des Moines, IA Wed, Mar 04, 2009 USDA Market News<br /><br />USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.<br />Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.<br /><br />Compared to Tuesday's Close: Fresh loins generally steady;<br />butts firm; sknd hams 20-23 lbs 4.00-5.00 higher, 23-27 lbs 1.00 higher on a<br />light test; sdls bellies 14-16 lbs steady; lean trimmings unevenly steady.<br />Trading slow to moderate, with light to moderate demand and offerings.<br /><br /><br /><br />-----------------------------------------------------------------<br />Loads PORK CUTS : 75.63<br />Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 41.0<br />-----------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT<br />Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.<br /><br /> Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass<br /> 53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib<br />-----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /> Total Today's Primal Cutout Values<br />Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly<br />-----------------------------------------------------------------------<br />03/04 116.6 56.26 73.65 61.39 35.17 97.93 39.09 71.30<br />Change : -0.66 1.32 1.63 -5.03 -0.50 -2.42 0.01<br />-----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />NW_LS831<br />Des Moines, IA Wed, Mar 04, 2009 USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News<br /><br />National Direct Hog Price Comparison<br /><br />--------------------------------------------------------------------------<br /> : National : Iowa : Western : Eastern<br /> : : Minnesota : Cornbelt : Cornbelt<br />--------------------------------------------------------------------------<br /> Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and<br /> no premiums are added.<br />--------------------------------------------------------------------------<br />BARROWS & GILTS : 1.76 hgr : 2.25 hgr : 1.88 hgr : 1.47 hgr<br />Negotiated : : : :<br />CARCASS BASIS : 47.00-62.00 : 47.00-62.00 : 47.00-62.00 : 47.00-61.00<br />185 lb Base Hog : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg<br />Plant Delivered : 57.76 : 59.13 : 59.00 : 54.90<br />--------------------------------------------------------------------------<br />Head Count : 31,114 : 16,963 : 21,688 : 9,426<br />==========================================================================<br /><br /></pre><br /><b><br /></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><span style="font-size:78%;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></span>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-5706913707045720572009-03-03T14:51:00.000-06:002009-03-03T14:51:11.121-06:00Hog Comments - 03-03-09 - Hogs find support and rebound.<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>CORN - May '09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.49, High - $3.54 1/4, Low - $3.47 1/4 Close - $3.50 1/2 Up $.00 1/4</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">As a review of yesterday is said "I think it is safe to say we should see a test of today's low of $3.44 1/2 and then attempt to rally toward $3.50 3/4. Support for tomorrow in the May '09 contract is $3.44 1/2 then small support at $3.37 1/2 and resistance should be $3.50 3/4 then $3.52 1/4. I am looking for some turn around Tuesday action tomorrow."</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>The May '09 contract made it through the $3.52 1/4 upside resistance level I had penciled in for today and it was .02 3/4 above my support level of $3.44 1/2. I wish I had some magical news or chart formations to talk about today but I really don't. Today was pretty boring when it comes to the market, the Feds have been speaking in Washington D.C. all day and that has the Dow Jones both up and down depending on the comments that are being made. We did have an inside day today meaning today's low and high were both within yesterday's trade range. </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>Bottom line - I feel like we should continue to try and move higher tomorrow as we got very little of that accomplished today. I see today's high of $3.54 1/4 as a target area for tomorrow and then $3.58 in the May '09 contract. Overall I think we could be mixed tomorrow with the upside resistance areas being targets. Tomorrow's support is $3.48 1/4, $3.47 1/4 then $3.44 1/2. Tomorrow's resistance is $3.54 1/4 and then $3.57 1/4. I look for mixed to better trade tomorrow.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b>MEAL - May '09 Electronic</b><br />
<b face="arial">Open - $260.50, High - $265.70, Low - $259.90, Close - $264.70 Up $3.90</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Yesterday I said "I see tomorrow having an early low and a late high looking for a turnaround Tuesday type action. Support is $259.50 then $255.30 and resistance is $263.90 then $265.20. I am looking for an early low and late high tomorrow but it all depends on how the Dow Jones reacts tomorrow." </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>My support and resistance points for today were relatively close to the mark, we were within $.40 on support and $.50 on the resistance side. The May '09 meal contract is still below the $265.20 level that would provide a test toward $270.90 if we managed to close above this level for a couple days. .</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>Bottom line - The market looks like we should have follow through to the upside tomorrow based on the way we traded today. I see support at $262.90, $262.20 and then $260.00 if we get moving to the downside. Resistance should be around $263.90 and then $265.70. One note to point out is if the May contract moves above $265.70 and then comes back down through it will trigger a sell signal at $265.20 on a stop. If the sold at $265.20 then a risk management buy stop order should be placed $1.00 above the most recent high. This is an observation not a recommendation </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b>HOGS - April '09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b>Open - $60.00, High - $61.325, Low - $60.00, Close - $60.85 Down $.575</b><b> </b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Reviewing yesterday's comments I said "I expect some recovery for the hog sector tomorrow along with the grains with projections of early lows and late highs. April '09 support for tomorrow is $59.825 then $59.55 and if we get bearish then $58.60, resistance is at $60.45 then $61.075-$61.275. June '09 support is $71.175 then $70.825 while resistance should be $71.925-$72.125 then $72.75. I don't think the high end of my resistance levels for either April '09 or June '09 is attainable tomorrow unless we get major rallies in other markets."</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>We got within $.20 of my first support level in April '09 and $.05 above my resistance level. In June '09 we got within $.175 of my first support level and within $.30 of my last resistance level. There was very little in the way of news today from a fundamental perspective. The market traded technically today as illustrated by my support and resistance points from yesterday. </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>Bottom line - We got a market close back above the $60.45 level which will open the door to a longer-term target of $64.00 provided the April '09 contract continues to close above $60.45. I am looking for mixed markets tomorrow but with a friendly feel, I can see both directions tomorrow. April '09 support is $60.65, 60.32 and resistance is 60.975, $61.32 then up to $64.00 (outside of limit range but is the next resistance level). June '09 support is $71.35, $71.125 and resistance is $72.12, $72.45 then $72.75.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>I have an appointment this afternoon therefore I will not have any USDA information today.<br />
</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-49414249369943829182009-03-02T15:21:00.000-06:002009-03-02T15:21:15.975-06:00Hog Comments - 03-02-09 - Hogs take a break from the recent rally.<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>CORN - May '09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.57 1/4, High - $3.62 3/4, Low - $3.44 1/2 Close - $3.50 1/4 Down $.08 3/4<br />
</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">May '09 corn did what everything else was doing today, moving lower. I had support last week at $3.59 1/4 where I purchased futures ($3.60 actually) against $3.60 May'09 call options to get further coverage in place after taking some equity out of the market the day before. I have around 25% exposure to the downside that has unknown risk however all of my other positions have a know risk factor.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>As I watched the May '09 corn contract sink lower and lower today it did find some support around $3.45 1/2. The market made its big move during the first hour of trade then had $.01 1/2 worth of follow through to the downside during the second hour and the third hour was looking for a retracement of the earlier downside move. It is hard to have a friendly tone to the market now that we have pierced the $3.50 1/2 support level in the May '09 contract. Last Friday's close below $3.63 wasn't the best Weekly close we could've had. A close below $3.63 on a consistent basis would project another test of the contract low of $3.15 3/4 set on 12-05-08. </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>Bottom line - today's action is piggy backed on the decline of the Dow Jones making its lowest low since 1997 by the help of our friends at AIG needing more taxpayer money. The Dow Jones aside I am looking for an early low tomorrow and firm as we move forward into the day. I think it is safe to say we should see a test of today's low of $3.44 1/2 and then attempt to rally toward $3.50 3/4. Support for tomorrow in the May '09 contract is $3.44 1/2 then small support at $3.37 1/2 and resistance should be $3.50 3/4 then $3.52 1/4. I am looking for some turn around Tuesday action tomorrow.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b>MEAL - May '09 Electronic</b><br />
<b face="arial">Open - $267.50, High - $269.30, Low - $259.50, Close - $260.80 Down $9.00</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">May '09 meal wasn't anything special today as it followed the same trade tendencies as the rest of the Ag commodities. I have a cycle low in place on May '09 meal as of last Thursday but that doesn't mean the cycle is that exact low; it makes a projection in the area of the low. Looking at today's trade we see some signs of a possible recovery tomorrow. The troubling part of this cycle low is the market has now closed below $270.70 for three straight days and that would suggest a test of the contract low at $237.00. I have call option positions in place where I know my risk and will continue to use this strategy until I see signs that would suggest otherwise.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b face="arial"> <br />
</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>Bottom line - I see May meal opening lower tonight on follow through weakness and then finding support and firming from there. Again, similar to corn I believe the Dow Jones is going to have some effect on tonight's open for the Ag sector. I see tomorrow having an early low and a late high looking for a turnaround Tuesday type action. Support is $259.50 then $255.30 and resistance is $263.90 then $265.20. I am looking for an early low and late high tomorrow but it all depends on how the Dow Jones reacts tomorrow.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b>HOGS - April '09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b>Open - $60.925, High - $60.975, Low - $59.825, Close - $60.275 Down $.625</b><b> </b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">April '09 hogs retraced some of its gains from last week today closing $.625 lower on the day. Morning cash bids were up nicely according to the USDA but with the outside markets in the crapper it was hard to get anything going to the upside. Also some of the cash optimism was factored into last week's trade.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>The market action in the April '09 contract was just a pause to make a move higher in the future. We bounced off of the 50% retracement level of Friday's price range ($59.825) and closed above it. With this being said it looks as if the market wants to make another run at Friday's high of $61.075 at some point in the near future. June '09 is also holding above $71.175 which is the 50% retracement level back to the $69.62 low prior to our rally. As long as we hold $71.175 the market is still poised to test the most recent high of $72.75 at some point in the near future. </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>Bottom line - I am looking for some early weakness tonight/tomorrow and test the $59.82 level in the April '09 and also the $71.175 level in the June '09 contract. Cutout was mildly lower tonight only down $.13 but we sure could have used some positive news in what seems to be a huge bear blanket surrounding the markets today. I expect some recovery for the hog sector tomorrow along with the grains with projections of early lows and late highs. April '09 support for tomorrow is $59.825 then $59.55 and if we get bearish then $58.60, resistance is at $60.45 then $61.075-$61.275. June '09 support is $71.175 then $70.825 while resistance should be $71.925-$72.125 then $72.75. I don't think the high end of my resistance levels for either April '09 or June '09 are attainable tomorrow unless we get major rallies in other markets.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><P><pre>NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA Mon, Mar 02, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Friday's Close: Fresh loins steady to weak;
butts, sknd hams, and sdls bellies steady; lean trimmings firm. Trading slow,
with light to moderate demand and mostly moderate offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 52.38
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 6.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
03/02 58.4 56.22 70.76 60.01 40.12 98.00 40.32 71.26
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : -0.13</span> -0.36 0.26 0.00 -0.16 -0.25 unc
-----------------------------------------------------------------------</pre><pre></pre><pre>NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA Mon, Mar 02, 2009 USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News
National Direct Hog Price Comparison
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
: National : Iowa : Western : Eastern
: : Minnesota : Cornbelt : Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
<span style="background-color: yellow;">BARROWS & GILTS : 1.32 hgr : .13 hgr : .88 hgr : .67 hgr</span>
Negotiated : : : :
CARCASS BASIS : 46.00-59.00 : 46.00-59.00 : 46.00-59.00 : 46.00-59.00
185 lb Base Hog : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg
Plant Delivered : 55.22 : 55.44 : 56.19 : 52.63
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count : 24,537 : 11,776 : 17,344 : 6,489
==========================================================================
</pre><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-50047720272241838832009-02-26T15:40:00.000-06:002009-02-26T15:40:19.726-06:00Hog Comments - 02-26-09 - Hogs got stuck in the mud today.<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>CORN - May '09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.71 1/4, High - $3.80 1/2, Low - $3.65 3/4 Close - $3.70 1/2 Down $.01 3/4<br />
</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">As a review from yesterday I said "I am looking for a retracement lower tomorrow with a test of the $3.68 1/2 to $3.66 area. The daily chart looks somewhat impressive after today's activity so if we do not retrace tomorrow and close firmer again I think we may be starting a leg higher in the market. I think we will make an early high and late low tonight. Support will be $3.68 1/2 to $3.66 and resistance will be $3.77 3/4 and then $3.80 however I am not confident that we will get that high."</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>May '09 corn hit both ends of my range from yesterday, the high was $3.80 1/2 just a 1/2 higher than my number and the low was $3.65 3/4 only a 1/4 below my number. I sold out of some long positions at $3.76 which were put on the other day at $3.59 1/2. I am now back down to around 25% of feed corn covered and I look to re-establish my coverage around $3.60 if we can get that low. If May '09 closes above today's high of $3.80 1/2 then I may change my mind but for now I am going to make the market prove itself to me.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>Bottom line - I expect the May '09 contract to open slightly higher tonight and find early resistance. I think we have another shot at testing today's low either tonight or tomorrow. Sustained trade below $3.70 tonight/tomorrow will trigger a target of $3.59 1/4. Support will be $3.65 3/4 and then $3.59 1/4 and resistance will be $3.73 to $3.75 and then ultimately $3.80 1/2. I am expecting another day of weak trade tomorrow however I am still not bearish longer-term.<b> </b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b>MEAL - May '09 Electronic</b><br />
<b face="arial">Open - $267.40, High - $270.50, Low - $259.70, Close - $263.20 Down $4.20</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">As a review from yesterday I said "I have a cycle low in place for tomorrow and also a longer-term buy signal at $266.60 on a stop order if the market moves below today's low and turns around and moves higher from there. The protective risk management sell stop would be $1.00 below the most recent low. I am looking for the early low and late high today which didn't happen so I am carrying that thought over into tomorrow. Support will be $265.90 then $265.30 and resistance will be $271.60 to $272.90."<b face="arial"> </b><b> </b> </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>As mentioned above, we will have a longer-term buy signal ON A STOP at $266.60 if and only if the market makes its way back up to these levels. The intraday chart suggests we have a chance to make this signal during tomorrow's trade. The evening trade has the market making another dip lower before we take a stab higher. </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>Bottom line - I believe support will be at $259.70 with a good chance of touching this level and resistance will be $265.10 to $266.40 but if the aforementioned signal is good then we could see a challenge of today's high of $270.50. I was expecting an early low and late high today which we didn't get but the third time is a charm right? My expectation is for an early low and late high tomorrow (I know if you say it long enough it will happen eventually but that isn't my intent) although the meal market has been challenging me this week. I still own my $280.00 April call options and have the downside open, if the market drops enough I will roll my options down to a lower strike price.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><b>HOGS - April '09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b>Open - $59.35, High - $59.50, Low - $58.60, Close - $58.975 Down $.125</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Reviewing yesterday's comments I said "cash was weaker again today with a lot of packers bought up into next week. The cutout was up $.41 today and cash was lower again so that means the packers gained more of their profit margin back today. I am expecting follow through on this rally into tomorrow on the coattails of higher product tonight. I think we can see the April '09 contract reach $60.425 tomorrow if the follow through is of the force I think it could be. I look for the hog market to firm as the day moves forward tomorrow. Support will be $58.75 to $58.50 and resistance will be $59.60 to $60.425 of which I think we could touch."</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>Reviewing my comments I guess I should have gone with my first level of resistance at $59.60 considering the high today was $59.50. I was in range on the support side of the equation but not accurate in thinking we would firm as the day moved forward. I think today was just a corrective/slow down day because it didn't do anything damaging to the charts. We will need to close below $58.05 in the April or $70.52 in the June contract. There are levels of support slightly above the respective numbers but these are my line in the sand values.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>Bottom line - I am looking for April to continue lower tonight and make and early low and possibly test $58.35 but the market had a hard time moving lower today. I am still on board with higher hog prices to come and I would like to see us close at $59.00 or higher tomorrow for a continued setup on the weekly chart. Support tomorrow is $58.32 to $58.05 for April and $70.80 to $70.53 in June. Resistance for April '09 is $59.15 to $59.50 and then up to $61.00 although it is unlikely to happen. Resistance for the June '09 contract is $71.60 to $72.00 and then all the way up to $73.50 which is unlikely tomorrow.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><P><pre>NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA Thu, Feb 26, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Wednesday's Close: Fresh loins generally steady;
butts steady to 1.00 lower; sknd hams 17-23 lbs not tested, 23-27 lbs weak in
a light test; sdls bellies 14-16 lbs steady; lean trimmings not tested. Trading
slow to moderate, with light to moderate demand and mostly moderate offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 86.5
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 3.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
02/26 89.5 56.57 71.97 60.91 40.06 97.15 40.65 71.26
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : 0.14 </span> 1.50 0.72 -0.53 0.44 -0.61 unc
-----------------------------------------------------------------------</pre><pre></pre><pre>NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA Thu, Feb 26, 2009 USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News
National Direct Hog Price Comparison
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
: National : Iowa : Western : Eastern
: : Minnesota : Cornbelt : Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
<span style="background-color: yellow;">BARROWS & GILTS : .10 lwr : .63 hgr : .49 hgr : 1.12 lwr</span>
Negotiated : : : :
CARCASS BASIS : 44.50-54.05 : 47.00-54.05 : 47.00-54.05 : 44.50-54.00
185 lb Base Hog : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg
Plant Delivered : 52.14 : 52.70 : 52.77 : 51.05
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count : 20,873 : 10,336 : 13,206 : 7,667
==========================================================================
</pre><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-20657657702379483372009-02-25T16:37:00.000-06:002009-02-25T16:37:04.937-06:00Hog Comments - 02-25-09 - Hogs find support and look to rally.<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>CORN - May '09 Electronic<br />
Open - $3.63, High - $3.77 3/4, Low - $3.59 1/4 Close - $3.63 Up $.09 1/4</b> </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">As a review from yesterday I said "Resistance is $3.62 3/4 and then $3.68 1/2 which I think we will touch. Support is $3.61 1/4 to $3.59 1/2, we may touch $3.61 1/4 but assuming no surprises from the President tonight I think the first support level will hold. I believe corn is searching for a bottom and I am taking a more aggressive approach to protecting upside price risk on feed needs. We still need to get back above $3.63 1/4 and close there on a Friday if we want to show further signs of a bottom."</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>I was 1/4 cent off on the lowest level of support I projected and the market did bounce from those levels. I also had upside targets of $3.68 1/2 that didn't hold and we moved through them by $.09. The close today was better than I thought it would be, we closed above $3.71 3/4 which is the 50% retracement level back to the $3.93 high we made on Feb 9th, 2009. The intraday charts suggest a steady to lower opening for tonight and for tomorrow to be a give back day. </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P>Bottom line - I am looking for a retracement lower tomorrow with a test of the $3.68 1/2 to $3.66 area. The daily chart looks somewhat impressive after today's activity so if we do not retrace tomorrow and close firmer again I think we may be starting a leg higher in the market. I think we will make an early high and late low tonight. Support will be $3.68 1/2 to $3.66 and resistance will be $3.77 3/4 and then $3.80 however I am not confident that we will get that high. </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: arial;"><P><P><b>MEAL - May '09 Electronic</b><br />
<b face="arial">Open - $275.10, High - $277.30, Low - $265.90, Close - $267.40 Down $7.60</b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: arial;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: arial;">As a review from yesterday I said "There is one thing I don't like on the hourly chart (very short-term) is if we gap higher tonight and retreat there is a small sell signal at $274.50 on a sell stop with the risk management buy stop above the most recent high. I WILL NOT take this trade tonight because of all the other longer-term indications I get of a potential bottom." Even though it looks as if the signal was right it was voided because it was conditional to the first two hours of trade and we wouldn't have reached the sell stop during the first hours so it was no good. </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: arial;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: arial;"><P>I am surprised the soybean and meal market failed to get anything going to the upside today and the last hour of trade is really confusing. It looks like the overnight session should be weaker based on my cycle projections but we had an hourly buy signal at $266.80 and if it is good the market should be up right away tonight. I don't like the way we traded today but I am still in the camp of the market looking for a bottom in here. </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: arial;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: arial;"><P>Bottom line - I have a cycle low in place for tomorrow and also a longer-term buy signal at $266.60 on a stop order if the market moves below today's low and turns around and moves higher from there. The protective risk management sell stop would be $1.00 below the most recent low. I am looking for the early low and late high today which didn't happen so I am carrying that thought over into tomorrow. Support will be $265.90 then $265.30 and resistance will be $271.60 to $272.90.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: arial;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: arial;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: arial;"><P><P><b>HOGS - April '09 GLOBEX</b><br />
<b>Open - $57.60, High - $59.325, Low - $57.025, Close - $59.10 Up $1.40</b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: arial;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: arial;">As a review from yesterday I said "April '09 hogs actually had good price action today if you are looking for signs of a potential reversal in the market. I have a cycle indicator that says yesterday we were near the bottom of the cycle and today's price action confirms that to me BUT I need to see good buying above today's high of $57.95 and a close above this level tomorrow. A close tomorrow above $70.425 in the June '09 contract would also be beneficial for the prospect of a rally in that contract."</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: arial;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: arial;"><P>It is evident by today's close the April '09 hogs did get some short-covering and buying come in above $57.95 as mentioned yesterday. I myself bought April '09 futures at $58.075 to hedge my $59.00 put options to protect the equity in them and give me time to see if this rally if for real before I exit puts. With today's close as strong as it was I expect a better opening tonight and further follow through to the upside tomorrow with our next target at $59.60 but ultimately $60.425 is where I think we could be headed. If we can reach $60.425 and close above it for a day or two then we can talk prices of $61.275 to $64.00 but let's not count our chickens yet. </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: arial;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: arial;"><P>Bottom line - cash was weaker again today with a lot of packers bought up into next week. The cutout was up $.41 today and cash was lower again so that means the packers gained more of their profit margin back today. I am expecting follow through on this rally into tomorrow on the coattails of higher product tonight. I think we can see the April '09 contract reach $60.425 tomorrow if the follow through is of the force I think it could be. I look for the hog market to firm as the day moves forward tomorrow. Support will be $58.75 to $58.50 and resistance will be $59.60 to $60.425 of which I think we could touch.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: arial;"></div><P><pre>NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA Wed, Feb 25, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Tuesday's Close: Fresh bone-in loins and butts
generally steady; sknd hams 20-23 lbs steady, 23-27 lbs steady to 2.00 higher;
sdls bellies and lean trimmings not tested. Trading slow to moderate, with
mostly light to moderate demand and mostly moderate offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 103.88
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 2.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
02/25 105.9 56.43 70.47 60.20 40.59 96.72 41.26 71.26
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : 0.41</span> -0.56 0.09 4.19 -1.43 0.60 -0.01
-----------------------------------------------------------------------</pre><pre></pre><pre>NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA Wed, Feb 25, 2009 USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News
National Direct Hog Price Comparison
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
: National : Iowa : Western : Eastern
: : Minnesota : Cornbelt : Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
<span style="background-color: yellow;">BARROWS & GILTS : .97 lwr : 1.22 lwr : 1.13 lwr : .73 lwr</span>
Negotiated : : : :
CARCASS BASIS : 44.50-54.50 : 46.50-54.39 : 44.50-54.39 : 45.00-54.50
185 lb Base Hog : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg
Plant Delivered : 52.23 : 51.98 : 52.24 : 52.19
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count : 19,432 : 8,112 : 11,565 : 7,717
==========================================================================
</pre><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-35158638589323616382009-02-24T14:11:00.018-06:002009-02-24T15:38:56.157-06:00Hog Comments: 02-24-09 Are hogs looking for a reversal?<p style="font-family: arial;font-family:arial;" class="MsoNormal" ><span style="font-size:100%;"><b>CORN - May '09 Electronic<br />Open - $3.59 1/2, High - $3.63 1/4, Low - $3.54, Close - $3.63 Up $.02 1/4</b></span></p><p style="font-family: arial;font-family:arial;" class="MsoNormal" ><span style="font-size:100%;">First things first, if you will notice I shifted from March '09 corn to the May '09 contract. I said yesterday I thought we would see some support at $3.48 3/4 and if we violated that for a few hours then we could test yesterday's low of $3.42 but we only got as low as $3.45 1/4 before finding support.</span> I also said I needed to see a close above $3.52 before I got excited about the market; we got that close today at $3.54 1/4.<p><p style="font-family: arial;" class="MsoNormal">I am still not super excited but I did add to my long feed position today buying the May '09 futures around $3.59 1/2, this was on 50% of what our needs are. I also have $3.50 May puts in place against my long futures in case I am wrong about the market. I purchased futures and puts instead of a call because if the market rallies like I think it could I can sell my put options and salvage some cost but if I had a call option in place I would have to pay the entire premium amount to keep my upside open.<p><p style="font-family: arial;" class="MsoNormal">Bottom line - Again I am switching to commentary about the May '09 contract instead of March. I am going with a firmer bias for tonight and tomorrow for various reasons, 1.) we closed above $3.61 1/4 which now projects $3.68 1/2 as a target and 2.) the stock market made most of its significant rally after the corn market was closed. As mentioned I think we will be firmer tonight/tomorrow unless President Obama says something the market doesn't like in his State of the "Economy" Address this evening. Resistance is $3.62 3/4 and then $3.68 1/2 which I think we will touch. Support is $3.61 1/4 to $3.59 1/2, we may touch $3.61 1/4 but assuming no surprises from the President tonight I think the first support level will hold. I believe corn is searching for a bottom and I am taking a more aggressive approach to protecting upside price risk on feed needs. We still need to get back above $3.63 1/4 and close there on a Friday if we want to show further signs of a bottom.<p><p style="font-family: arial;" class="MsoNormal"><br /><p><p style="font-family: arial;" class="MsoNormal"><b>MEAL - May '09 Electronic</b><br /><b face="arial">Open - $272.20, High - $275.00, Low - $269.50, Close - $275.00 Up $1.70</b></p><p style="font-family: arial;" class="MsoNormal">As mentioned in corn I am now referring to the May '09 meal contract instead of the March because of pending expiration.<b face="arial"> </b>As a review from yesterday I said; if we continue to trade above $270.70 we should begin to make our way back higher with our first target at $295.30, $302.30 and ultimately $325.20. Today's close was at $275.00 which once again is above my key area of $270.70. I failed to mention another area of resistance when I gave targets yesterday and its $281.20 basis the May '09 contract.<br /><p><p style="font-family: arial;" class="MsoNormal">The $281.20 area is the 50% level between the Dec '08 low and the Jan '09 high so we need trade above this level for a day or two before I feel very comfortable saying $295.30 is our next target. I still feel like soybean meal is trying to bottom this week but like I said yesterday I need confirmation first and I don't have it yet.<p><p style="font-family: arial;" class="MsoNormal">Bottom line - With the Dow Jones rallying into its close today I believe it will bring support to the grain markets tonight therefore I look for meal to open higher tonight. There is one thing I don't like on the hourly chart (very short-term) is if we gap higher tonight and retreat there is a small sell signal at $274.50 on a sell stop with the risk management buy stop above the most recent high. I WILL NOT take this trade tonight because of all the other longer-term indications I get of a potential bottom. Resistance for tomorrow is $276.70 and then $281.20 and support will be $272.30 to $271.60. I believe we will have an early low and a late high tomorrow.<p><p style="font-family: arial;" class="MsoNormal"><br /><p><p style="font-family: arial;" class="MsoNormal"><b>HOGS - April '09 GLOBEX</b><br /><b>Open - $57.60, High - $57.95, Low - $56.875, Close - $57.70 Down $.525</b></p><p style="font-family: arial;" class="MsoNormal">Flat out called hogs wrong today on support and resistance targets. I mentioned yesterday there was a buy signal on the intra-day charts at $58.05 but I wouldn't take that trade because the daily charts were so lackluster, this was a good thing today. There is really nothing good to talk about on the fundamental side from a short-term perspective, cash remains weak and we can't seem to light a fire under the cutout.<p><p style="font-family: arial;" class="MsoNormal">April '09 hogs actually had good price action today if you are looking for signs of a potential reversal in the market. I have a cycle indicator that says yesterday we were near the bottom of the cycle and today's price action confirms that to me BUT I need to see good buying above today's high of $57.95 and a close above this level tomorrow. A close tomorrow above $70.425 in the June '09 contract would also be beneficial for the prospect of a rally in that contract. When I talk about reversals and rallies I am looking at a shorter-term basis and not calling market bottoms because we need much more confirmation than what we have right now. The information I am giving you on the April and June '09 contracts are just a conditional setup right now.<p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:arial;">Bottom line - The cutout was down $.17 tonight which is better than yesterday's number of down $.81 but we can't get around the fact that it is still lower. It sounds like most packers are out of the market for buying pigs this week (at the moment) to continue pressuring the cash market looking to increase the demand for product/cutout. Today is confusing because we have a bunch of bearish fundamental news out there but the charts are showing signs of a possible change in direction. I am a technician so I will go with what I objectively see in the charts. I see support for tomorrow at $57.40 and then $57.25 and resistance above the market is $57.95 and if we manage to sustain trade above $57.95 we should trigger some buy stops to cover some short positions AND it is a buy signal on my chart. IF this buy signal is good and starts a rally over the coming week(s) our next upside target would be $60.475. I wouldn't get aggressive with this signal because of the fundamental situation we are in but I want to talk about it so you know it is there. The way I am handling risk of a potential reversal is using puts to protect downside risk. I'm looking for pressure early and then stabilization as the day progresses.</span><p><pre>NW_LS500<br />Des Moines, IA Tue, Feb 24, 2009 USDA Market News<br /><br />USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.<br />Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.<br /><br />Compared to Monday's Close: Fresh loins weak to 2.00 lower;<br />butts 1.00-2.00 lower; sknd hams 17-20 lbs steady, 20-23 lbs steady to 1.00<br />lower, 23-27 lbs steady to 2.00 higher; sdls bellies steady to 2.00 lower; lean<br />trimmings steady to 2.00 lower. Trading slow to moderate, with mostly light<br />demand and moderate to heavy offerings.<br /><br /><br />-----------------------------------------------------------------<br />Loads PORK CUTS : 125.75<br />Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 11.0<br />-----------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br />USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT<br />Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.<br /><br /> Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass<br /> 53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib<br />-----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /> Total Today's Primal Cutout Values<br />Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly<br />-----------------------------------------------------------------------<br />02/24 136.8 56.02 71.03 60.10 36.40 98.15 40.66 71.27<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Change : -0.17</span> -1.17 -1.68 3.54 -1.63 0.25 -0.49<br />-----------------------------------------------------------------------<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;font-size:130%;" >THE USDA AFTERNOON CASH REPORT WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS POST.</span><br /><br /></pre><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style="font-family:arial;"></span><span style="font-family:arial;"><span style="font-size:78%;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></span></p>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-34377828044544320812009-02-23T16:06:00.000-06:002009-02-23T16:06:06.808-06:00Hog Comments - 02-23-09 - A bunch of nothing in the Ag sector today.<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b face="arial" style="font-family: arial;">CORN - March '09 Electronic<br />
<b face="arial"><b>Open - $3.50, High - $3.59 3/4, Low - $3.49 1/2, Close - $3.51 3/4 Up $.01 1/2</b></b></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I said on Friday that I had a buy signal for March '09 corn at $3.46 3/4 and the market needed to close above this level on Monday (today) for the signal to remain in tack. As of right now the signal is still good but the market failed to honor the price action of the overnight trade. I also said we are up against the $3.54 3/4 down trend line that is providing us with resistance and again today it held.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">We saw a big drop in the Dow Jones going into the close of its trade today and should provide some pressure on tonight's commodities open. I also said Friday the Dow Jones had buy signal at 7447 if the market could manage to get back to this level which it did not therefore the signal is null and void. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> <br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> Bottom line - I expect March '09 corn to open mixed to lower tonight testing $3.48 3/4 before finding some support. If the market fails to hold $3.48 3/4 then the next target would be $3.42, our most recent low. As aforementioned the buy signal is still intact but I would like the market to close above the down trend line at $3.52 before I get excited. We made it through my projection points from Friday and I look for tonight/tomorrow to be sideways to lower and will probably take some direction from Wall Street.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> <br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - March '09 Electronic</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /> <b face="arial" style="font-family: arial;">Open - $269.90, High - $279.90, Low - $268.60, Close - $276.30 Up $6.30</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">March '09 meal was trading firmer most of the day with very little downside pressure. The March '09 contract touched and went through my targets from Friday of $272.60 to $273.60 and I said I wouldn't hold my breath for $277.10 but we traded above it for an ultimate high of $279.90 and closed just below the resistance level.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><P><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I am moving to May '09 meal for commentary instead of the March contract due to its pending expiration. When I look at the May '09 meal contract I begin to look for a bottom. Today we got back above $270.70 which is the 62% retracement level back to our low on Dec 5th 2008. If we continue to trade above $270.70 we should begin to make our way back higher with our first target at $295.30, $302.30 and ultimately $325.20. I am not making this projection yet because my thoughts are conditional and I need confirmation first.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><P><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I look for support in the May '09 meal at $272.20 and resistance to be $276.70. It looks like the meal market wants to make its bottom this week but like I said I need confirmation first. I do like the setup we have so if you don't have meal covered or enough covered now is the time to purchase some coverage via a known risk strategy leaving your downside open.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - April '09 GLOBEX</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /> <b style="font-family: arial;">Open - $58.125, High - $58.65, Low - $57.95, Close - $58.225 Up $.275</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I said last Friday I thought we could test $59.05 and possibly $59.45 but we didn't get very close to these numbers today. The prospects looked good when we opened but then settle down as we began trading for a few minutes. We tested Friday's low today and got within $.05 of it and held which works for me. The April '09 contract was very lackluster today and didn't give me any real direction other than a possible pause before making another stab lower.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">On the hourly chart I see an intra-day buy signal at $58.05 with a risk management sell stop at $57.65. I don't know as though I would make this trade because I didn't see anything on the daily chart that gives me great reason to do so. I do see the cycle coming to a point where we could now see better trade for the remainder of the week but I like to focus more on price action and like I said it really didn't tell me much today.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I look for April '09 hogs to trade better this evening and mixed tomorrow with a potential test of $59.45 as I mentioned last Friday. Cutout was down $.81 today and cash was considerably lower again today. Packers are continuing to regain profit margin on a per pig basis with the cash market moving lower at a faster pace than cutout. I look for support to be $57.90 tomorrow and if we break that level then we open ourselves up to another leg lower. From a trading perspective I can see a bounce tomorrow but I still see nothing on the daily chart to get me excited about the prospect of a big rally.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><pre>NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA Mon, Feb 23, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Friday's Close: Fresh loins 2.00-3.00 lower;
butts steady to 2.00 lower; sknd hams 17-23 lbs firm, 23-27 lbs steady; sdls
bellies 14-16 lbs steady to 2.00 lower; lean trimmings steady. Trading slow,
with mostly light demand and moderate offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 56.0
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 16.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
02/23 72.0 56.19 72.19 61.78 32.86 99.78 40.41 71.76
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : -0.81</span> -0.63 -0.94 -3.02 -0.06 -0.62 -0.50
-----------------------------------------------------------------------</pre><pre></pre><pre>NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA Mon, Feb 23, 2009 USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News
National Direct Hog Price Comparison
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
: National : Iowa : Western : Eastern
: : Minnesota : Cornbelt : Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
<span style="background-color: yellow;">BARROWS & GILTS : 2.42 lwr : 3.07 lwr : 2.71 lwr : 1.68 lwr</span>
Negotiated : : : :
CARCASS BASIS : 46.00-57.91 : 47.00-57.91 : 47.00-57.91 : 46.00-56.00
185 lb Base Hog : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg
Plant Delivered : 54.49 : 54.56 : 54.98 : 53.95
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count : 20,892 : 7,104 : 10,973 : 9,919
==========================================================================
</pre><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><b face="arial" style="font-family: arial;"> </b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-529025532697125244.post-50401105775464153442009-02-20T15:26:00.000-06:002009-02-20T15:26:02.518-06:00Hog Comments - 02-20-09 - Hogs make a new contract low.<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b face="arial" style="font-family: arial;">CORN - March '09 Electronic<br />
<b face="arial"><b>Open - $3.53 1/4, High - $3.54 3/4, Low - $3.42, Close - $3.50 1/4 Down $.03</b></b></b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">All I have to say today is Dow Jones. The Dow Jones tested its November 2008 low of 7449.38 yesterday and made a new low of 7447.55 but managed to close at 7465.95 a few points above the November low. Today was a different story; the Dow tested this level again and moved below this level with no particular concern. We made a new low of 7249.47 which is still above the ever so important October 2002 low of 7197.49. I have a buy signal (this isn't a recommendation) on the Dow Jones index at 7447 if we can get to this level either today or Monday. If I were actually making the trade it would be on a buy stop with a risk management sell stop at 7220.<br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><P><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Ag commodities markets in general took their lead from the Dow Jones today as everything was weak across the board. March '09 corn made its lows early in the day trading all the way down to $3.42 before coming back some as we moved into the closing minutes of trade. There was a buy signal (not textbook) on the daily chart at $3.46 3/4. March '09 corn will need to stay above $3.46 3/4 on Monday for this signal to be good but the actual risk management sell stop would be at $3.41.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><P><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I spoke of the Dow Jones in my comments above but I was writing while the corn market was still open. The Dow bounced off of its low and started a rally as the grain market was closing. I expect March '09 corn to trade higher on Monday with an upside target of $3.56 1/4. We should see buy stops triggered above today's high of $3.54 3/4. We have been butting up against the down trend-line recently and that resistance level is $3.54 3/4 for Monday. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><P><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><b face="arial" style="font-family: arial;"><b face="arial"><b> </b></b></b> </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">MEAL - March '09 Electronic</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /> <b face="arial" style="font-family: arial;">Open - $277.40, High - $277.90, Low - $268.00, Close - $270.00 Down $6.50</b> </div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">$269.80 is a 62% retracement back to the low of $235.00 and today was our first test of this level. March '09 meal barely closed above the retracement level but it did close above it. The March '09 contract seems as though it wants to take a small breather here for the moment. I don't expect any major rallies but I do look for a correction up to the $272.60 to $273.60 area with a possible test of $277.10.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><P><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I exited my long $290.00 March '09 puts today (because of expiration) and rolled down my long $320.00 April '09 call to an April $280.00 call for $6.50. I also exited a short $350.00 May '09 call option I sold against my original long $320.00 April '09 call option. I sold the call for $10.00 and bought it back for $1.00 so we had a profit of $9.00 to offset some of the cost of my original long $320.00 April '09 position. The reason I sold the May call to help pay for the April call is I wanted upside coverage after I exited my long futures positions but I didn't want the exposure of a futures position. I then put this call spread on ($320 April vs. $350 May) for a net cost of $5.50. I also rolled the option down from $320.00 to $280.00 as mentioned above for $6.50 so I increased the cost of my $280.00 call option to $12.00 but I had a profit in our $290.00 March '09 put of $12.50 to cover my cost and move my ceiling down $40.00/ton.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><P><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Bottom line - As I said above I expect the market to be firmer come Sunday night and Monday. I look for the $272.60 to $273.60 area to be tested with a possible test of $277.10 although I will not hold my breath for $277.10.</div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><P><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b style="font-family: arial;">HOGS - April '09 GLOBEX</b><br style="font-family: arial;" /> <b style="font-family: arial;">Open - $60.70, High - $61.00, Low - $57.90, Close - $58.20 Down $2.375</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">April '09 hogs have taken a nosedive since my last posting. I said in my last posting the odds of an April '09 market bottom were increasing daily but I wasn't going to make that bold of a prediction to say the market had bottomed. The market completely shrugged off last week's performance and took back all of the gains and then some.</span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><P><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I didn't like the fact that we challenged our contract low yesterday and then made new lows today. I purchased some April '09 $59.00 put options for the time being because we violated our contract low. I did this around the open of today's trade and I will hold these puts until I see signs of market improvement. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />
</span></div><P><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Bottom line - I see the hog market making an early low on Monday and then firming as the day moves forward. The cash was significantly lower today based on reduced kills but the cutout was only down $.22 so the packers regained some of their packing margin. It is possible to see a test of $59.05 and then $59.45 on Monday. </span></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> <br />
</span></div><P><pre>NW_LS500
Des Moines, IA Fri, Feb 20, 2009 USDA Market News
USDA NATIONAL CARLOT PORK REPORT as of: 3:00 P.M.
Purchases equated to FOB Omaha Basis.
Compared to Thursday's Close: Fresh bone-in loins not tested;
butts 2.00-3.00 lower; sknd hams 20-23 lbs steady to firm, 23-27 lbs steady;
sdls bellies 14-16 lbs steady; lean trimmings 2.00 lower. Trading slow, with
light to moderate demand and mostly moderate offerings.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Loads PORK CUTS : 43.0
Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 10.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------
USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.
Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
02/20 53.0 57.00 72.83 62.72 35.89 99.84 41.03 72.26
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Change : -0.22</span> 0.76 -1.03 -5.17 0.39 1.00 unc
-----------------------------------------------------------------------</pre><pre></pre><pre>NW_LS831
Des Moines, IA Fri, Feb 20, 2009 USDA-IA Dept of Ag Market News
National Direct Hog Price Comparison
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
: National : Iowa : Western : Eastern
: : Minnesota : Cornbelt : Cornbelt
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
no premiums are added.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
<span style="background-color: yellow;">BARROWS & GILTS : 2.23 lwr : 3.02 lwr : 2.93 lwr : .18 hgr</span>
Negotiated : : : :
CARCASS BASIS : 46.50-62.90 : 46.50-62.90 : 46.50-62.90 : 47.50-57.50
185 lb Base Hog : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg : wtd avg
Plant Delivered : 56.61 : 57.14 : 57.42 : 55.63
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Head Count : 23,888 : 9,076 : 13,302 : 10,386
==========================================================================
</pre><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><b style="font-family: arial;"> <br />
</b></div><div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.</span></div>Jeremy Knutsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03408408856896903787noreply@blogger.com0