Sorry for the lack of charts today but I wrote my comments tonight from my vehicle using my cellphone for an internet connection. I got the corn chart to upload but couldn't get the meal and hogs to upload. I didn't want to lose my posting so I have to post without those two charts. They will be in tomorrows post at my normal afternoon time.
Dec '08 Corn Daily Chart
CORN Well I guess wrong is now spelled J-E-R-E-M-Y after today’s market action. It really surprised me with the market move we had today. As you know if you read my comments yesterday, I expected corn to trade higher today. It did trade higher last night until around 9:00 p.m. before we started to trade lower. I didn’t take any action to exit or adjust any of my corn positions because I still want to see how we act around the $5.65 number.
I actually had a buy signal today at $5.55 ½ because we moved lower than yesterday’s low and then moved right back above it. If this signal is good, which I still think it could be, we should see a nice pop in the market. I am not bearish at these levels just yet but I would sure like to get back above $5.65 on a daily close by tomorrow. $5.52 is the 62% retracement back to the $5.04 low and has held thus far. Corn has made early lows the last two days and rallied towards the close which is a positive indication that there is support under the market. At the risk of being dead wrong once again, I think the market will trade higher tomorrow. I am not a bear at these levels.
Meal
Meal was in the tank along with everything else today. Like corn I didn’t do anything to adjust my long positions today. $335.60 was our low in meal today which is 62% retracement to our low of $311.20. We bounced off of the $335.60 number and closed just below the 50% retracement level of $343.20. If we can close above $343.20 tomorrow I will consider today’s trade action as “noise” in the market. Again like corn I feel like this market could and should trade higher tomorrow. I think today was a fluke and I am going to stick with my thoughts of higher prices yet to come. The low in Aberdeen, SD today was 38 degrees which isn’t far from five letter word that is treated as a four letter word, “FROST”. Again, I expect higher markets tomorrow and I do not plan on adjusting my positions at this point.
Hogs
I am glad I rolled my short futures from October to December yesterday at a $.60 carry because Dec was down $1.20 vs. Oct being down $.90. The market actually held together pretty well I thought for having another day where cutout was down $1.60 or so. Cash bids came in strong today according to the USDA reports both mid-day and this afternoon. I have a buy signal in Dec ’08 hogs tomorrow at $69.00 on a stop, again the signal is only good if the market gets there. If it does get there then I would like to see the market close above $69.00 for the day in order for me to be confident in the signal. I am not going to waiver from my thoughts of higher hog prices in the short-term, I am not a bull but I think we could use a bounce in here some place.
I expect better markets tomorrow even with cutout being down $.74 today. Cash was better and the trade will be looking to see if we can get more follow through on the cash side, Lord knows the packers have money to spend if they want to.
Sorry for the short comments today, if you have specific questions please email them to me or give me a call. Thank you for reading and have a wonderful evening.
Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.
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