Hog Comments - Another fun filled day of nothing.

CORN
Corn gave us a little run up in the overnight session blowing through Friday's high of $6.04 1/2 but failed to close above that level this afternoon. It still looks as though corn wants to make a bounce but we seem to be met with good selling anytime we try to make a strong move higher. The volume today (electronic) was around 94,000 contracts in the Dec '08 futures so the .04 3/4 higher close had some players behind it. I am sticking to my comments from Friday that we should have seen a strong move higher basis the buy signal I had last week but since we have failed to do so I would expect most of our rally attempts to be met with good selling. The levels of resistance that could see good selling are $6.22, $6.53 and $6.81 all in the Dec '08 contract. I don't expect the market to do anything crazy going into our August crop production report in a couple of weeks so with that said, I believe we are going to trade a range here for awhile and then look for direction when we get more news in the market. There has been some talk of a "ridge" over the cornbelt in the coming weeks but the predictions are unfounded according to some industry experts. As far as I can tell everything seems to look great in our backyard from a production perspective. I am still keeping my ceiling in place for feed needs but I am not looking for any major rallies to take out our June highs just yet. The crop ratings this afternoon have the crop 66% Good/Excellent vs. 58% last year and 62% on the 5 year average. Crop ratings could be viewed as slightly negative although I would be surprised if the trade wasn't expecting a better number than last week.

MEAL
Soybean meal started out stronger with the soybeans and corn this morning but couldn't hold the rally, it broke along with soybeans. I exited my meal hedges for now when the market was up $5.00 in the Sep contract but I am willing to get right back in if I am wrong. The market feels heavy to me after being as high as $12.90 higher in the overnight trade and it doesn't have enough believers to hold a strong rally. I feel like meal is in the same boat as corn, looking for a sideways pattern here for now and then look for reasons to breakout one way or the other. For now I am going to try and buy meal lower on any dips.

HOGS
Hogs tried to rally above what seems to be the forever talked about $74.00 level in the Oct '08 contract but failed to hold any rallies much past the first hour of trade. The Oct contract was down as much as .80 cents but rallied into the close to finish the day down around .47 cents. Extended trade is down around .32 (this is a continuation of today's pit trade) after the cash and cutout reports have been released at 3:00 p.m. central. We closed today below Fridays low and would expect some follow through to the downside tomorrow based on the lax fundamental news we got this afternoon. Cash seemed weak this morning but then firmed some as the day went on. There are no grave danger signs in cash just yet but we may be getting into borrowed time if we keep this up much longer. As a disclaimer, my strong suit is not in the cash hog commentary/predictions as much as it is the technical analysis of the charts and futures market bias.

USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.

          Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
       53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
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        Total                   Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date     Loads      Carcass    Loin    Butt   Pic     Rib   Ham  Belly
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07/28        40.3      85.30  100.53   90.69  68.21  97.02 86.35  89.58
Change :                0.05    0.35    0.20   0.04   0.97 -1.71   1.98

National Direct Hog Price Comparison

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               :  National   :    Iowa     :   Western   :   Eastern
               :             :  Minnesota  :  Cornbelt   :  Cornbelt
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  Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
  no premiums are added.
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BARROWS & GILTS :   .37 hgr   :   .33 hgr   :   .42 hgr   :   .22 lwr
Negotiated      :             :             :             :
CARCASS BASIS   : 72.25-82.50 : 75.00-82.50 : 73.00-82.50 : 72.25-81.76
185 lb Base Hog :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg
Plant Delivered :    79.95    :    80.59    :    80.77    :    78.26

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and here is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.