Corn still sliding but soybeans and meal thinking differently?

CORN

Corn wanted to follow crude oil today making a charge at new lows when crude would. Soybeans began to firm a bit around 11:00 a.m. which didn’t seem to give corn much of a boost. The market is now below $6.00 in the Dec 08 contract and if we close below the $6.00 level this Friday then we could experience another move lower toward the March low of $5.13 ¼. The positions that I have on for feed lost $07 cents on Friday, .10 cents yesterday and today actually made a .01 cent when the market was down .16 cents. My position should begin to increase in value as the market moves lower and COULD actually make money. I don’t believe I will wait for very long to “try and make money” in this position. If/when it gets to a point of very little overall cost to exit I will lift this position and restructure moving my price ceiling lower with the market. That opportunity is a relatively distant at this point. I will keep you posted.

MEAL

Meal along with soybeans looked like they want to find a bottom in this area. Both meal and soybeans have touched a 50% retracement level from a previous low in the market. Soybeans show more of a bottoming type trade today BUT it is only a bottom if we can close above a previous day’s high which would mean closing tomorrow above $14.24 ½ in the Nov contract. Meal should follow along with soybeans as it did today.

HOGS

Hogs have shown strength again today going into the close. Most of the day was quiet until we hit approximately 11:00 a.m. then we began to rally. Cash still remains strong and cutout is hanging in there to allow for positive fundamental news for traders. August hogs are very close to touching our most recent highs prior to the quarterly hog and pig report on June 27^th, 2008. October on the other hand has failed to rally quite like August, it has only gotten approximately 62% of the way back to the most recent high prior to the report. IF we can close the October hogs above $74.00 on Friday, technically we could make a run toward $77.42 (the old high).

USDA ESTIMATED PORK CARCASS CUTOUT
Based on FOB Omaha carlot pork prices and industry yields.

        Calculations for a 200 lb Pork Carcass
     53-54% lean, 0.65"-0.80" backfat at last rib
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      Total                   Today's Primal Cutout Values
Date     Loads      Carcass    Loin    Butt   Pic     Rib   Ham  Belly
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07/22        90.1      84.17   99.65   88.78  66.32  98.16 87.40  84.58
Change :                0.32   -0.42    3.68   0.18   0.07  0.06   0.05

National Direct Hog Price Comparison

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             :  National   :    Iowa     :   Western   :   Eastern
             :             :  Minnesota  :  Cornbelt   :  Cornbelt
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Base Price is the price from which no discounts are subtracted and
no premiums are added.
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BARROWS & GILTS :   .62 hgr   :   .75 hgr   :   .56 hgr   :  1.32 hgr
Negotiated      :             :             :             :
CARCASS BASIS   : 72.50-81.00 : 74.00-81.00 : 73.99-81.00 : 72.50-81.00
185 lb Base Hog :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg   :   wtd avg
Plant Delivered :    78.40    :    79.24    :    79.14    :    77.20

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and here is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.